Up-to-date Overall Predictions

All weighted probabilities are generated using KRACH comparisons. The KRACH is static, it does not regenerate after each game. The current method of predicting a tie game using KRACH isn't the best, it overstates the likelihood of a tie against two closely matched teams, feel free to email reillyhamilton@gmail.com with suggestions.

Probabilites reflect the results of Thursday and Friday's games.

KRACH has been regenerated following Friday's games.

Want to generate your own rankings, predictions, and odds? Try the KRACH weighted PWR Predictor / Odds to see who is in/out and what seeding possibilities remain

Also check out the Game-by-Game Outcome Summarizer to see how a particular seed can be achieved

TeamLikelihoodMost Likely Seed if in Tournament
Quinnipiac100.0000%1
Minnesota100.0000%2
Miami100.0000%3
Mass.-Lowell100.0000%3
Boston College100.0000%5
North Dakota100.0000%6
New Hampshire100.0000%7
Denver100.0000%9
Minnesota State97.5105%10
Niagara92.0620%11
Yale82.7326%7
St. Cloud State81.2242%12
Notre Dame76.9622%10
Wisconsin57.2551%14
Union55.9225%12
Mercyhurst53.1708%16
Canisius46.8292%16
Brown44.0775%14
Colorado College42.7449%15
Boston University38.9268%14
Ohio State14.3900%15
Michigan11.7639%15
Western Michigan4.4277%14
Robert Morris0.0000%-
Rensselaer0.0000%-
Alaska-Fairbanks0.0000%-
Providence0.0000%-
Dartmouth0.0000%-
Cornell0.0000%-
St. Lawrence0.0000%-
Ferris State0.0000%-
Nebraska-Omaha0.0000%-
Holy Cross0.0000%-
Connecticut0.0000%-
Air Force0.0000%-
Merrimack0.0000%-
Northern Michigan0.0000%-
Bowling Green0.0000%-
Colgate0.0000%-
Lake Superior0.0000%-
Minnesota-Duluth0.0000%-
Massachusetts0.0000%-
Penn State0.0000%-
Maine0.0000%-
Princeton0.0000%-
Vermont0.0000%-
Michigan Tech0.0000%-
Michigan State0.0000%-
RIT0.0000%-
Clarkson0.0000%-
Harvard0.0000%-
American Int'l0.0000%-
Northeastern0.0000%-
Bentley0.0000%-
Bemidji State0.0000%-
Alaska-Anchorage0.0000%-
Army0.0000%-
Sacred Heart0.0000%-
Alabama-Huntsville0.0000%-

Quinnipiac - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1100.0000%100.0000%384

Minnesota - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
2100.0000%100.0000%384

Miami - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
350.4920%48.9583%188
440.4913%43.7500%168
59.0167%7.2917%28

Mass.-Lowell - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
344.3442%44.7917%172
430.0866%21.0938%81
516.0954%20.0521%77
66.8851%11.9792%46
72.0260%1.8229%7
80.5626%0.2604%1

Boston College - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
420.2492%28.3854%109
569.0534%63.8021%245
610.6975%7.8125%30

North Dakota - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
51.5858%0.7812%3
671.9590%56.7708%218
717.9666%33.5938%129
86.8061%4.6875%18
91.6824%4.1667%16

New Hampshire - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
60.5086%0.2604%1
752.5909%40.8854%157
846.1796%58.3333%224
90.7209%0.5208%2

Denver - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
826.3308%15.8854%61
951.3751%47.6562%183
1020.3327%30.7292%118
111.6445%4.6875%18
120.3170%1.0417%4

Minnesota State - 97.5105% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
813.9452%11.9792%46
921.7007%21.0938%81
1031.8643%30.4688%117
1122.2814%24.2188%93
126.5220%5.9896%23
131.1970%1.0417%4
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
172.1128%4.1667%16
180.3766%1.0417%4

Niagara - 92.0620% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1024.4510%19.2708%74
1137.3928%33.8542%130
1223.3518%23.1771%89
136.8664%5.2083%20
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
177.1772%15.3646%59
180.7608%3.1250%12

Yale - 82.7326% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
52.5679%7.5521%29
69.9498%23.1771%89
727.4166%23.6979%91
82.0584%2.6042%10
916.5503%9.6354%37
124.5234%3.3854%13
137.8870%4.6875%18
147.1262%3.3854%13
154.6532%1.5625%6
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1714.4077%14.0625%54
182.8596%6.2500%24

St. Cloud State - 81.2242% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
100.3170%1.0417%4
1120.7298%22.3958%86
1229.2108%26.0417%100
1320.4277%13.8021%53
1410.5390%5.2083%20
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1715.8751%23.1771%89
182.9007%8.3333%32

Notre Dame - 76.9622% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
35.1638%6.2500%24
49.1729%6.7708%26
51.6807%0.5208%2
84.1173%6.2500%24
97.9706%16.9271%65
1019.9025%16.6667%64
117.5106%8.0729%31
126.2294%2.8646%11
139.5966%4.9479%19
142.4012%1.5625%6
153.2164%1.5625%6
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1710.2345%11.9792%46
189.0859%9.3750%36
193.7174%6.2500%24

Wisconsin - 57.2551% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
103.1325%1.8229%7
111.5898%1.8229%7
127.8028%9.8958%38
1317.2470%18.4896%71
1420.9121%14.8438%57
156.5709%3.1250%12
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
188.8441%4.6875%18
1911.2670%10.4167%40
205.7701%7.8125%30
217.9378%9.1146%35
227.0077%11.7188%45
231.9182%6.2500%24

Union - 55.9225% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
118.8511%4.9479%19
1220.1246%21.3542%82
1319.5392%19.0104%73
147.4075%4.6875%18
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
174.4277%3.1250%12
1817.7217%12.5000%48
1917.4407%21.8750%84
204.4875%12.5000%48

Mercyhurst - 53.1708% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1653.1708%50.0000%192
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
3646.8292%50.0000%192

Canisius - 46.8292% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1646.8292%50.0000%192
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
4053.1708%50.0000%192

Brown - 44.0775% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
134.9276%12.5000%48
1420.5136%25.0000%96
1518.6363%12.5000%48
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
2120.1218%10.1562%39
2212.3817%11.7188%45
2315.0799%14.8438%57
248.3391%13.2812%51

Colorado College - 42.7449% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
147.5744%18.7500%72
1535.1705%31.2500%120
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
2419.8963%12.7604%49
2512.0931%5.2083%20
2615.1202%13.2812%51
2710.1456%18.7500%72

Boston University - 38.9268% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
121.9182%6.2500%24
1310.4189%18.7500%72
1417.3857%18.7500%72
159.2040%6.2500%24
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
187.7360%3.1250%12
1917.6404%11.7188%45
2016.8575%15.1042%58
2111.9730%10.4167%40
225.4322%6.7708%26
231.4340%2.8646%11

Ohio State - 14.3900% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
143.6050%6.2500%24
1510.7849%18.7500%72
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
257.4371%7.5521%29
269.0109%4.9479%19
285.2152%12.5000%48
2944.1325%25.0000%96
3019.8142%25.0000%96

Michigan - 11.7639% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1511.7639%25.0000%96
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
280.5158%1.5625%6
2912.7497%10.9375%42
305.9561%12.5000%48
3264.7808%44.7917%172
334.2337%5.2083%20

Western Michigan - 4.4277% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
131.8926%1.5625%6
142.5351%1.5625%6
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1745.7649%28.1250%108
1841.0735%46.8750%180
198.7338%21.8750%84

Robert Morris - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
186.2114%3.6458%14
1911.8560%10.6771%41
2029.9489%21.6146%83
2136.1682%38.8021%149
2214.5610%22.6562%87
231.2545%2.6042%10

Rensselaer - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
182.4297%1.0417%4
1929.3447%17.1875%66
2042.9360%42.9688%165
2120.1181%28.9062%111
224.8506%9.1146%35
230.3209%0.7812%3

Alaska-Fairbanks - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
213.6811%2.6042%10
2211.6763%10.9375%42
2312.3322%22.9167%88
2416.7236%16.4062%63
2534.1784%24.2188%93
2620.7490%21.6146%83
270.6593%1.3021%5

Providence - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
2224.8237%15.6250%60
2333.5817%25.0000%96
2423.2824%21.8750%84
2510.8455%18.7500%72
267.4668%18.7500%72

Dartmouth - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
2219.2668%11.4583%44
2334.0786%24.7396%95
2431.7585%35.6771%137
2513.4723%25.0000%96
261.4237%3.1250%12

Cornell - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
2521.9736%19.2708%74
2646.2294%38.2812%147
2731.7970%42.4479%163

St. Lawrence - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
2754.6460%36.4583%140
2827.6340%26.0417%100
2912.9067%27.8646%107
304.8133%9.6354%37

Ferris State - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
272.7520%1.0417%4
2866.6350%59.8958%230
2930.2110%36.1979%139
300.4019%2.8646%11

Nebraska-Omaha - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
3036.8370%23.1771%89
3148.2725%48.6979%187
3214.8905%28.1250%108

Holy Cross - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
3032.1775%26.8229%103
3151.7275%51.3021%197
3216.0950%21.8750%84

Connecticut - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
324.2337%5.2083%20
3395.7663%94.7917%364

Air Force - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
34100.0000%100.0000%384

Merrimack - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
35100.0000%100.0000%384

Northern Michigan - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
3653.1708%50.0000%192
3746.8292%50.0000%192

Bowling Green - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
3738.1364%35.9375%138
3857.5746%58.8542%226
394.2891%5.2083%20

Colgate - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
3715.0345%14.0625%54
3842.4254%41.1458%158
3942.5401%44.7917%172

Lake Superior - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
3953.1708%50.0000%192
4046.8292%50.0000%192

Minnesota-Duluth - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
41100.0000%100.0000%384

Massachusetts - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
4255.4691%56.7708%218
4344.5309%43.2292%166

Penn State - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
4244.5309%43.2292%166
4336.7763%35.6771%137
448.8833%10.4167%40
459.8095%10.6771%41

Maine - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
4313.4973%9.6354%37
4473.6073%63.5417%244
4512.8953%26.8229%103

Princeton - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
435.1954%11.4583%44
4417.5094%26.0417%100
4570.6137%59.1146%227
466.6815%3.3854%13

Vermont - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
456.6815%3.3854%13
4693.3185%96.6146%371

Michigan Tech - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
47100.0000%100.0000%384

Michigan State - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
4877.1402%59.6354%229
4922.8598%40.3646%155

RIT - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
4822.8598%40.3646%155
4977.1402%59.6354%229

Clarkson - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
5077.0652%72.6562%279
5122.9348%27.3438%105

Harvard - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
5022.9348%27.3438%105
5177.0652%72.6562%279

American Int'l - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
52100.0000%100.0000%384

Northeastern - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
53100.0000%100.0000%384

Bentley - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
54100.0000%100.0000%384

Bemidji State - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
55100.0000%100.0000%384

Alaska-Anchorage - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
56100.0000%100.0000%384

Army - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
57100.0000%100.0000%384

Sacred Heart - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
58100.0000%100.0000%384

Alabama-Huntsville - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
59100.0000%100.0000%384