Minnesota State and Colorado College win

All weighted probabilities are generated using KRACH comparisons. The KRACH is static, it does not regenerate after each game. The current method of predicting a tie game using KRACH isn't the best, it overstates the likelihood of a tie against two closely matched teams, feel free to email reillyhamilton@gmail.com with suggestions.

TeamLikelihoodMost Likely Seed if in Tournament
Quinnipiac100.0000%1
Minnesota100.0000%2
Miami100.0000%3
Mass.-Lowell100.0000%3
Boston College100.0000%6
North Dakota100.0000%9
New Hampshire100.0000%9
Minnesota State100.0000%10
Denver99.7174%11
Yale99.6532%5
Niagara99.6293%6
St. Cloud State99.2385%12
Notre Dame87.8022%10
Western Michigan86.8949%14
Union61.5276%15
Rensselaer26.0648%16
Connecticut23.5290%16
Boston University19.8842%15
Providence18.9202%15
Mercyhurst17.4484%16
Ohio State14.3688%15
Canisius13.1246%16
Michigan11.7761%15
Brown10.3210%15
Colorado College9.8191%15
Robert Morris0.2806%16
Wisconsin0.0000%-
Alaska-Fairbanks0.0000%-
Dartmouth0.0000%-
Cornell0.0000%-
St. Lawrence0.0000%-
Ferris State0.0000%-
Nebraska-Omaha0.0000%-
Holy Cross0.0000%-
Air Force0.0000%-
Merrimack0.0000%-
Northern Michigan0.0000%-
Bowling Green0.0000%-
Colgate0.0000%-
Lake Superior0.0000%-
Minnesota-Duluth0.0000%-
Massachusetts0.0000%-
Penn State0.0000%-
Maine0.0000%-
Vermont0.0000%-
Princeton0.0000%-
Michigan Tech0.0000%-
Michigan State0.0000%-
RIT0.0000%-
Harvard0.0000%-
Clarkson0.0000%-
American Int'l0.0000%-
Northeastern0.0000%-
Bentley0.0000%-
Bemidji State0.0000%-
Alaska-Anchorage0.0000%-
Army0.0000%-
Sacred Heart0.0000%-
Alabama-Huntsville0.0000%-

Quinnipiac - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1100.0000%100.0000%98304

Minnesota - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
2100.0000%100.0000%98304

Miami - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
347.0855%44.9951%44232
431.6782%34.6598%34072
515.7203%15.4836%15221
64.8462%4.3060%4233
70.6627%0.5391%530
8td>0.0072%0.0163%16

Mass.-Lowell - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
323.0422%20.3461%20001
410.4952%7.8959%7762
515.0409%15.9892%15718
621.6621%23.7701%23367
717.4509%18.4163%18104
89.2969%10.0199%9850
92.1976%2.9226%2873
100.7740%0.6114%601
110.0402%0.0285%28

Boston College - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
316.6866%16.9902%16702
417.5892%15.2944%15035
518.4074%22.1100%21735
621.2567%22.7722%22386
717.2803%15.7766%15509
87.1066%5.3457%5255
91.1565%1.3560%1333
100.3453%0.2625%258
110.1713%0.0926%91

North Dakota - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
50.8806%2.0559%2021
62.9351%5.0201%4935
712.0064%17.3635%17069
823.6400%23.5586%23159
928.2271%28.3976%27916
1022.5495%18.4855%18172
119.2582%4.8757%4793
120.5031%0.2431%239

New Hampshire - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
50.0911%0.2543%250
62.4078%4.8848%4802
78.5773%13.4450%13217
827.8049%35.8551%35247
945.9021%35.6272%35023
1015.0975%9.7056%9541
110.1193%0.2279%224

Minnesota State - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
36.9206%9.9579%9789
413.1692%11.7228%11524
512.1871%8.7372%8589
611.1811%9.2306%9074
711.8572%10.7371%10555
88.6006%8.7870%8638
99.9647%14.6250%14377
1013.5199%15.4714%15209
119.4036%8.7240%8576
123.1960%2.0070%1973

Denver - 99.7174% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
80.0631%0.0702%69
92.9033%4.5858%4508
1014.6833%17.7907%17489
1133.5914%33.3964%32830
1231.9347%29.7699%29265
1316.3648%12.0076%11804
140.1769%0.1373%135
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
170.2723%2.0772%2042
180.0102%0.1648%162

Yale - 99.6532% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
32.7900%2.9643%2914
413.6507%15.3514%15091
516.2611%15.6728%15407
613.5599%14.7573%14507
714.0616%12.5997%12386
810.5911%7.6355%7506
93.5587%3.9358%3869
103.1830%3.6184%3557
116.5347%4.6631%4584
128.2490%6.0465%5944
135.3868%6.4860%6376
141.8196%3.3488%3292
150.0071%0.0102%10
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
170.3199%2.4292%2388
180.0269%0.4812%473

Niagara - 99.6293% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
44.1531%3.5838%3523
513.1431%8.3130%8172
615.2900%8.0577%7921
713.6424%7.2723%7149
810.9020%6.4535%6344
92.2445%2.4801%2438
104.2799%5.8502%5751
1113.2030%17.4774%17181
1214.1385%22.7325%22347
137.9840%12.8123%12595
140.6487%0.9674%951
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
170.3518%3.5380%3478
180.0190%0.4618%454

St. Cloud State - 99.2385% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
30.0488%0.2330%229
42.3256%5.9601%5859
55.5631%9.0658%8912
66.0190%6.3324%6225
74.1108%2.7537%2707
81.3473%0.6551%644
91.6675%2.0162%1982
107.1496%8.2876%8147
1112.8595%10.5632%10384
1231.7705%22.7386%22353
1322.6627%21.4793%21115
143.7140%4.1728%4102
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
170.7219%5.0303%4945
180.0396%0.7121%700

Notre Dame - 87.8022% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
33.4263%4.5135%4437
46.9388%5.5318%5438
52.7053%2.3183%2279
60.8421%0.8687%854
70.3504%1.0966%1078
80.6403%1.6032%1576
92.1779%4.0538%3985
1018.3360%19.5669%19235
1113.1378%17.1265%16836
124.7794%6.8176%6702
1316.9361%9.4940%9333
147.9285%4.1931%4122
156.0952%2.8381%2790
163.5082%0.9430%927
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
178.1816%8.9193%8768
183.1116%6.6305%6518
190.8490%2.9541%2904
200.0555%0.5310%522

Western Michigan - 86.8949% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1320.1498%13.3250%13099
1455.0477%34.4543%33870
1511.2224%7.7759%7644
160.4750%0.2523%248
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1711.0662%29.2389%28743
181.9230%12.8510%12633
190.1159%2.0996%2064
200.0000%0.0031%3

Union - 61.5276% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
100.0821%0.3499%344
111.6808%2.8249%2777
125.3775%8.4727%8329
136.4787%10.4777%10300
1412.0572%8.4310%8288
1529.9782%9.8114%9645
165.8731%1.4089%1385
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1722.8408%21.4447%21081
1810.5242%20.4152%20069
193.6061%10.9934%10807
201.1815%3.8584%3793
210.2744%1.1414%1122
220.0429%0.3235%318
230.0025%0.0468%46

Rensselaer - 26.0648% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.7866%0.6510%640
142.8006%2.2593%2221
1510.2450%5.0364%4951
1612.2326%2.6937%2648
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1734.3061%21.3715%21009
1826.9849%32.0424%31499
1910.4105%24.9471%24524
202.0237%9.4401%9280
210.2056%1.5188%1493
220.0044%0.0397%39

Connecticut - 23.5290% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
150.3062%0.7721%759
1623.2228%24.2279%23817
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
280.0624%0.0326%32
2915.8317%6.9102%6793
308.0855%6.1279%6024
316.5542%7.4778%7351
3225.2919%19.9310%19593
3320.6453%34.5205%33935

Boston University - 19.8842% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
120.0249%0.5859%576
132.4976%6.5786%6467
147.2826%11.5316%11336
157.6518%6.2276%6122
162.4273%0.6704%659
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
175.7174%2.2196%2182
1812.3892%6.3599%6252
1922.1939%13.8255%13591
2022.5960%19.2169%18891
2111.4147%16.7511%16467
224.3414%9.8358%9669
231.1584%4.2287%4157
240.2708%1.6266%1599
250.0339%0.3418%336

Providence - 18.9202% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
120.0264%0.5859%576
130.6095%4.3447%4271
145.2922%10.9731%10787
1510.3743%8.1441%8006
162.6177%1.0173%1000
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
172.5039%0.6429%632
187.5503%3.0212%2970
1913.8027%8.2489%8109
2018.4152%13.1714%12948
2115.7321%14.0432%13805
229.2398%10.9751%10789
236.1306%8.1879%8049
244.1921%6.3863%6278
252.5759%5.9672%5866
260.8663%3.6001%3539
270.0709%0.6907%679

Mercyhurst - 17.4484% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1617.4484%25.0000%24576
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
3521.5199%12.5000%12288
3654.1903%49.9969%49149
376.8260%12.4919%12280
380.0155%0.0112%11

Ohio State - 14.3688% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.4710%2.4546%2413
157.6941%17.1112%16821
166.2037%5.4342%5342
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
210.6148%0.1160%114
220.4810%0.1953%192
231.5053%0.7538%741
242.6133%1.5259%1500
255.0215%2.7761%2729
264.7694%4.3152%4242
273.5889%5.5033%5410
2822.9389%14.5752%14328
2931.8382%25.2502%24822
306.1187%12.2040%11997
314.7157%6.5440%6433
321.4255%1.2410%1220

Canisius - 13.1246% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1613.1246%25.0000%24576
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
390.0063%0.0051%5
4016.5325%24.9949%24571
4170.3365%50.0000%49152

Michigan - 11.7761% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
156.0649%17.9779%17673
165.7112%7.0221%6903
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
272.6978%2.0142%1980
286.2640%5.2409%5152
297.0733%8.7158%8568
302.7301%8.2662%8126
3113.4089%5.8400%5741
3246.9170%32.7749%32219
339.1329%12.1480%11942

Brown - 10.3210% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.1433%2.3438%2304
141.7717%9.7900%9624
155.1935%10.4004%10224
163.2123%2.4658%2424
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
180.0682%0.0509%50
190.7991%0.6215%611
206.1268%3.5461%3486
2119.4749%10.6730%10492
2215.3180%13.3921%13165
2310.3330%11.7930%11593
247.6156%9.2183%9062
2510.5077%7.9315%7797
2613.4124%9.8145%9648
275.8781%7.7647%7633
280.1451%0.1943%191

Colorado College - 9.8191% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.9892%7.2866%7163
155.1673%13.8947%13659
163.6626%3.8188%3754
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
210.0020%0.0010%1
221.7761%0.5544%545
233.6266%1.7517%1722
249.2174%4.5990%4521
2527.6965%13.7746%13541
2634.7341%30.2144%29702
2713.1281%24.1048%23696

Robert Morris - 0.2806% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
160.2806%0.0458%45
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
178.7859%2.2868%2248
1817.9220%10.6812%10500
1915.2674%17.8101%17508
208.7019%15.1550%14898
214.1534%6.0699%5967
224.0354%3.1850%3131
238.9522%5.4891%5396
2412.9881%8.6131%8467
2511.8360%13.1938%12970
266.1468%12.9466%12727
270.9304%4.5237%4447

Wisconsin - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
174.7779%0.7233%711
1817.9014%5.2409%5152
1927.1021%14.4053%14161
2024.7792%22.9218%22533
2115.0596%23.6938%23292
227.0891%18.2129%17904
232.7320%10.7676%10585
240.5387%3.6865%3624
250.0200%0.3479%342

Alaska-Fairbanks - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
170.1543%0.0783%77
181.4477%0.8494%835
193.8538%3.3824%3325
206.5852%7.8613%7728
219.7661%12.3159%12107
2211.5620%14.8305%14579
2316.0359%16.0868%15814
2423.9638%19.5862%19254
2520.2037%17.1875%16896
265.9379%6.9356%6818
270.4896%0.8860%871

Dartmouth - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
180.0613%0.0234%23
191.4908%0.3977%391
206.8732%2.4597%2418
2117.5885%9.2031%9047
2232.7799%21.9767%21604
2323.5440%26.8850%26429
2412.6719%22.5942%22211
254.3514%13.5915%13361
260.6391%2.8687%2820

Cornell - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
180.0206%0.0142%14
190.5087%0.3143%309
202.6619%1.8351%1804
215.7138%4.4729%4397
2213.3299%6.4789%6369
2325.9794%14.0096%13772
2425.9283%22.1639%21788
2517.7476%24.8840%24462
267.0943%19.9076%19570
271.0155%5.9194%5819

St. Lawrence - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
250.0058%0.0041%4
2621.9745%8.0271%7891
2738.4794%31.2703%30740
2823.9532%29.1514%28657
2913.2228%24.6470%24229
302.3642%6.9000%6783

Ferris State - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
264.4252%1.3702%1347
2733.7214%17.3228%17029
2846.6296%50.7955%49934
2914.5683%27.5635%27096
300.6556%2.9480%2898

Nebraska-Omaha - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
280.0069%0.0102%10
2917.4128%6.6772%6564
3059.0676%47.2168%46416
3115.4289%34.0769%33499
328.0529%11.8123%11612
330.0309%0.2065%203

Holy Cross - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
290.0529%0.2360%232
3020.9782%16.3371%16060
3159.8923%46.0612%45280
3218.3127%34.2407%33660
330.7639%3.1250%3072

Air Force - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
3369.4270%50.0000%49152
3430.5730%50.0000%49152

Merrimack - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
3469.4270%50.0000%49152
3530.5730%50.0000%49152

Northern Michigan - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
3547.9072%37.5000%36864
3645.8097%50.0031%49155
376.2831%12.4969%12285

Bowling Green - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
3752.0355%43.9972%43251
3845.1005%50.7161%49856
392.8640%5.2867%5197

Colgate - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
3734.8554%31.0140%30488
3854.8840%49.2727%48437
3910.2606%19.7133%19379

Lake Superior - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
3986.8691%74.9949%73723
4013.1309%25.0051%24581

Minnesota-Duluth - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
4070.3365%50.0000%49152
4129.6635%50.0000%49152

Massachusetts - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
4296.2845%94.3024%92703
433.7155%5.6976%5601

Penn State - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
423.6494%5.6315%5536
4334.0054%37.6129%36975
4417.8726%17.0268%16738
4517.8608%16.6890%16406
4626.5090%22.7336%22348
470.1028%0.3062%301

Maine - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
420.0547%0.0529%52
4336.0397%26.4109%25963
4426.9568%28.9805%28489
4528.3961%28.9347%28444
468.5527%15.6209%15356

Vermont - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
420.0114%0.0132%13
4318.0743%10.8734%10689
4435.4286%27.3387%26875
4530.6984%33.9305%33355
4615.7873%27.8442%27372

Princeton - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
438.1650%19.4051%19076
4419.7420%26.6541%26202
4523.0446%20.4458%20099
4649.0483%33.4951%32927

Michigan Tech - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
460.1028%0.3062%301
4799.8972%99.6938%98003

Michigan State - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
4861.1853%44.9341%44172
4938.8147%55.0659%54132

RIT - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
4838.8147%55.0659%54132
4961.1853%44.9341%44172

Harvard - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
5060.7579%49.3958%48558
5139.2421%50.6042%49746

Clarkson - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
5039.2421%50.6042%49746
5160.7579%49.3958%48558

American Int'l - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
52100.0000%100.0000%98304

Northeastern - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
53100.0000%100.0000%98304

Bentley - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
54100.0000%100.0000%98304

Bemidji State - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
55100.0000%100.0000%98304

Alaska-Anchorage - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
56100.0000%100.0000%98304

Army - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
57100.0000%100.0000%98304

Sacred Heart - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
58100.0000%100.0000%98304

Alabama-Huntsville - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
59100.0000%100.0000%98304