Minnesota State and North Dakota win

All weighted probabilities are generated using KRACH comparisons. The KRACH is static, it does not regenerate after each game. The current method of predicting a tie game using KRACH isn't the best, it overstates the likelihood of a tie against two closely matched teams, feel free to email reillyhamilton@gmail.com with suggestions.

TeamLikelihoodMost Likely Seed if in Tournament
Quinnipiac100.0000%1
Minnesota100.0000%2
Miami100.0000%3
Mass.-Lowell100.0000%6
Boston College100.0000%6
Minnesota State100.0000%8
North Dakota100.0000%8
New Hampshire100.0000%9
Denver99.8638%11
Niagara99.8181%6
Yale99.6775%8
St. Cloud State99.6230%12
Western Michigan89.6921%14
Notre Dame89.1005%13
Union63.4347%15
Rensselaer25.3792%16
Connecticut23.5290%16
Boston University19.9277%15
Providence18.7826%15
Mercyhurst17.4484%16
Ohio State14.3688%15
Canisius13.1246%16
Michigan11.7761%15
Brown10.3210%15
Robert Morris4.1058%16
Alaska-Fairbanks0.0273%16
Wisconsin0.0000%-
Dartmouth0.0000%-
Cornell0.0000%-
Ferris State0.0000%-
St. Lawrence0.0000%-
Colorado College0.0000%-
Holy Cross0.0000%-
Nebraska-Omaha0.0000%-
Air Force0.0000%-
Merrimack0.0000%-
Northern Michigan0.0000%-
Bowling Green0.0000%-
Colgate0.0000%-
Lake Superior0.0000%-
Minnesota-Duluth0.0000%-
Massachusetts0.0000%-
Penn State0.0000%-
Vermont0.0000%-
Maine0.0000%-
Princeton0.0000%-
Michigan Tech0.0000%-
Michigan State0.0000%-
RIT0.0000%-
Harvard0.0000%-
Clarkson0.0000%-
American Int'l0.0000%-
Northeastern0.0000%-
Bentley0.0000%-
Bemidji State0.0000%-
Alaska-Anchorage0.0000%-
Army0.0000%-
Sacred Heart0.0000%-
Alabama-Huntsville0.0000%-

Quinnipiac - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1100.0000%100.0000%98304

Minnesota - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
2100.0000%100.0000%98304

Miami - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
350.3920%44.8466%44086
427.6455%33.0505%32490
516.8188%17.4520%17156
64.8992%4.4179%4343
70.2377%0.2167%213
80.0069%0.0163%16

Mass.-Lowell - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
318.6502%17.6758%17376
414.2503%8.9813%8829
516.5086%14.9689%14715
619.1337%20.7123%20361
716.4718%19.2261%18900
89.0239%10.8622%10678
93.9969%5.7404%5643
101.6776%1.7212%1692
110.2870%0.1119%110

Boston College - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
316.5181%16.1011%15828
417.3660%13.6108%13380
516.5777%16.9006%16614
618.6533%19.8324%19496
715.4186%15.6993%15433
88.5820%9.3608%9202
93.9192%4.8889%4806
101.7669%2.4465%2405
110.9772%0.9918%975
120.2210%0.1678%165

Minnesota State - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
36.8847%10.8521%10668
410.7356%9.4421%9282
58.6103%6.8756%6759
611.2229%8.3964%8254
711.2626%10.7819%10599
813.5870%14.6128%14365
912.2927%13.8051%13571
1012.0738%14.2222%13981
119.9108%8.9579%8806
123.4195%2.0538%2019

North Dakota - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
32.2973%5.1514%5064
48.1090%12.0087%11805
513.1412%15.1011%14845
613.4193%15.4297%15168
723.0879%22.2575%21880
823.1922%17.2475%16955
911.8323%8.9244%8773
103.4760%3.0863%3034
111.3521%0.7456%733
120.0927%0.0478%47

New Hampshire - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
50.0361%0.1241%122
61.6797%3.3671%3310
76.2037%9.7860%9620
819.7655%25.1078%24682
939.6512%38.3219%37672
1027.8861%19.2851%18958
114.7242%3.9266%3860
120.0529%0.0804%79
130.0006%0.0010%1

Denver - 99.8638% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
80.0703%0.0804%79
92.3409%3.3234%3267
1012.5055%14.8560%14604
1134.2970%34.4635%33879
1232.9460%32.4402%31890
1317.4326%13.7400%13507
140.2716%0.2248%221
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
170.1362%0.8718%857

Niagara - 99.8181% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
43.2797%2.5055%2463
510.8585%6.9387%6821
614.3030%7.5968%7468
711.1710%5.2226%5134
86.7284%4.5085%4432
96.8885%6.5338%6423
1010.1485%10.3038%10129
1114.2874%17.1031%16813
1213.6836%22.6847%22300
137.8504%13.7838%13550
140.6193%0.9867%970
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
170.1819%1.8321%1801

Yale - 99.6775% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
32.7286%2.6194%2575
410.8772%11.1989%11009
59.3171%10.1827%10010
69.6510%11.2895%11098
710.2260%10.7208%10539
815.2137%13.9984%13761
912.4808%9.6069%9444
106.0107%5.9387%5838
117.0174%4.8655%4783
128.2832%5.9825%5881
135.4911%6.8329%6717
142.3145%4.3681%4294
150.0663%0.1190%117
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
170.2983%2.0203%1986
180.0242%0.2563%252

St. Cloud State - 99.6230% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
41.2571%3.7150%3652
54.1939%7.8888%7755
65.2165%6.9163%6799
74.7122%4.3193%4246
82.4882%1.8789%1847
92.3529%2.8025%2755
107.7298%8.5978%8452
1113.9420%11.3444%11152
1231.9291%22.7641%22378
1322.0529%22.4904%22109
143.7485%4.6458%4567
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
170.3770%2.6367%2592

Western Michigan - 89.6921% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1318.0365%13.9476%13711
1458.6472%40.4368%39751
1512.5140%10.1746%10002
160.4944%0.3337%328
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
179.1709%27.0396%26581
181.1211%7.9712%7836
190.0134%0.0844%83
200.0025%0.0122%12

Notre Dame - 89.1005% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
32.5290%2.7537%2707
46.4796%5.4871%5394
53.9379%3.5675%3507
61.8214%2.0416%2007
71.2085%1.7700%1740
81.3415%2.3254%2286
94.2134%5.9570%5856
1016.4625%19.0379%18715
1111.2443%14.6576%14409
124.3742%6.3263%6219
1319.1922%10.1664%9994
146.1591%4.7892%4708
156.5791%3.7913%3727
163.5579%1.1546%1135
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
176.8141%8.2387%8099
183.0823%5.0079%4923
190.8776%2.3244%2285
200.1178%0.5147%506
210.0077%0.0885%87

Union - 63.4347% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
80.0005%0.0010%1
90.0312%0.0956%94
100.2628%0.5046%496
111.9606%2.8320%2784
124.9931%7.4443%7318
136.1217%10.6262%10446
1412.5231%9.8531%9686
1531.8309%12.1023%11897
165.7107%1.6978%1669
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1721.4351%22.9533%22564
189.8956%19.0999%18776
193.6958%8.5673%8422
201.2528%2.9846%2934
210.2595%1.0457%1028
220.0264%0.1923%189

Rensselaer - 25.3792% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.5681%0.5168%508
142.6198%2.2675%2229
1510.5210%5.8929%5793
1611.6703%3.0813%3029
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1732.3472%22.4976%22116
1826.6555%31.8542%31314
1912.1356%22.8526%22465
203.1485%9.5367%9375
210.3263%1.4811%1456
220.0078%0.0193%19

Connecticut - 23.5290% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
150.2806%0.6917%680
1623.2483%24.3083%23896
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
280.0462%0.0315%31
2914.9542%6.1279%6024
303.1472%3.6936%3631
317.3742%4.3264%4253
3229.1753%22.9869%22597
3321.7739%37.8337%37192

Boston University - 19.9277% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
120.0046%0.0081%8
132.9401%5.4881%5395
146.8801%11.9415%11739
157.7683%7.5267%7399
162.3345%0.8280%814
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
175.7454%2.7486%2702
1811.8494%7.1320%7011
1922.3792%14.9292%14676
2024.6810%22.2148%21838
2111.2775%17.0390%16750
223.5447%7.9376%7803
230.5671%2.0142%1980
240.0280%0.1923%189

Providence - 18.7826% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.3139%2.4068%2366
144.7496%11.1064%10918
1510.8941%10.2041%10031
162.8250%1.3367%1314
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
172.5092%0.6958%684
187.3521%3.3152%3259
1913.9124%8.9661%8814
2017.6096%13.2151%12991
2116.2366%14.2609%14019
229.3467%10.7147%10533
235.9663%7.8267%7694
244.6710%6.5460%6435
252.6682%5.7475%5650
260.9454%3.6580%3596

Mercyhurst - 17.4484% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1617.4484%25.0000%24576
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
3521.5199%12.5000%12288
3654.1862%49.9898%49142
376.8211%12.4847%12273
380.0245%0.0254%25

Ohio State - 14.3688% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0791%0.4883%480
157.7582%18.4245%18112
166.5315%6.0872%5984
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
190.0068%0.0041%4
200.2142%0.0621%61
210.6189%0.2177%214
222.3089%1.0010%984
233.0604%1.8219%1791
243.3618%3.3295%3273
254.6534%3.7598%3696
265.0346%5.7943%5696
274.6498%9.4635%9303
2820.1085%6.8644%6748
2925.6080%20.3389%19994
308.4819%11.4695%11275
315.8676%8.8989%8748
321.6562%1.9745%1941

Canisius - 13.1246% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1613.1246%25.0000%24576
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
390.0027%0.0031%3
4016.5362%24.9969%24573
4170.3365%50.0000%49152

Michigan - 11.7761% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
156.0904%18.0583%17752
165.6856%6.9417%6824
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
260.2808%0.1333%131
271.7755%1.8483%1817
286.0135%3.6224%3561
298.1104%10.7198%10538
302.5243%7.4178%7292
3113.5900%6.1971%6092
3247.2148%33.4574%32890
338.7145%11.6038%11407

Brown - 10.3210% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
141.3808%8.8867%8736
155.3781%12.8255%12608
163.5621%3.2878%3232
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
180.0497%0.0519%51
190.6214%0.5941%584
204.7233%3.6723%3610
2119.5207%12.2498%12042
2222.4160%18.0664%17760
2312.8133%14.9933%14739
2411.6155%10.1288%9957
2511.7978%7.4198%7294
265.9113%7.4626%7336
270.2096%0.3591%353
280.0003%0.0010%1
290.0001%0.0010%1

Robert Morris - 4.1058% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0075%0.0051%5
150.3189%0.1892%186
163.7793%0.9338%918
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1715.0405%7.1747%7053
1819.0221%16.9159%16629
1911.5195%18.4458%18133
206.5839%8.6772%8530
217.5029%4.5512%4474
226.5629%4.2857%4213
235.3380%5.5410%5447
2410.0115%8.3547%8213
259.7248%13.3555%13129
264.5882%11.5702%11374

Alaska-Fairbanks - 0.0273% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
160.0273%0.0092%9
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
170.6560%0.3398%334
182.9763%2.1861%2149
196.2303%6.3721%6264
208.3855%11.0769%10889
2110.6921%14.1449%13905
2211.2919%14.8621%14610
2312.1073%13.4440%13216
2422.9445%16.2018%15927
2520.9069%16.7074%16424
263.7820%4.6560%4577

Wisconsin - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
175.2882%0.9511%935
1817.9404%6.1910%6086
1927.3532%16.3503%16073
2025.2778%24.0234%23616
2114.0153%22.1802%21804
227.0151%16.8162%16531
232.6882%10.5520%10373
240.4218%2.9358%2886

Dartmouth - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
180.0236%0.0122%12
190.8486%0.2797%275
205.4519%2.0721%2037
2113.5389%7.2215%7099
2227.2981%18.6289%18313
2330.2935%27.8371%27365
2415.7347%25.7589%25322
256.1232%16.4714%16192
260.6876%1.7181%1689

Cornell - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
180.0077%0.0061%6
190.4063%0.2299%226
202.5513%1.9379%1905
216.0036%5.5196%5426
2210.1814%7.4758%7349
2327.1658%15.9698%15699
2431.2112%26.5523%26102
2517.7237%27.1454%26685
264.7489%15.1632%14906

Ferris State - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
2514.4734%4.8686%4786
2642.8354%29.8116%29306
2734.9852%47.9624%47149
287.3327%16.1947%15920
290.3701%1.1383%1119
300.0033%0.0244%24

St. Lawrence - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
2511.8424%4.4027%4328
2628.5265%18.0023%17697
2731.7722%26.4496%26001
2820.5973%31.1300%30602
295.5037%14.4948%14249
301.3169%4.2969%4224
310.4410%1.2238%1203

Colorado College - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
250.0862%0.1221%120
262.6592%2.0304%1996
2726.6078%13.9170%13681
2845.2929%40.6392%39950
2923.0324%35.5214%34919
302.2251%7.2215%7099
310.0945%0.5422%533
320.0020%0.0061%6

Holy Cross - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
280.6012%1.4994%1474
296.5061%6.2032%6098
3057.1244%41.5619%40857
3129.1604%35.8002%35193
326.6080%14.9353%14682

Nebraska-Omaha - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
280.0075%0.0173%17
2915.9150%5.4545%5362
3025.1771%24.3144%23902
3143.4723%43.0115%42282
3215.3436%26.6398%26188
330.0845%0.5625%553

Air Force - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
3369.4270%50.0000%49152
3430.5730%50.0000%49152

Merrimack - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
3469.4270%50.0000%49152
3530.5730%50.0000%49152

Northern Michigan - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
3547.9072%37.5000%36864
3645.8138%50.0102%49162
376.2790%12.4898%12278

Bowling Green - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
3759.3399%53.5583%52650
3838.8170%43.5374%42799
391.8431%2.9043%2855

Colgate - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
3727.5600%21.4671%21103
3861.1585%56.4372%55480
3911.2814%22.0957%21721

Lake Superior - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
3986.8727%74.9969%73725
4013.1273%25.0031%24579

Minnesota-Duluth - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
4070.3365%50.0000%49152
4129.6635%50.0000%49152

Massachusetts - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
4295.8763%93.3309%91748
434.1150%6.6518%6539
440.0087%0.0173%17

Penn State - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
423.8874%6.3985%6290
4333.3423%38.8102%38152
4418.3841%16.2944%16018
4517.5280%12.6933%12478
4618.4017%16.1438%15870
478.4564%9.6598%9496

Vermont - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
420.1946%0.2319%228
4324.0967%18.7093%18392
4438.8020%33.9254%33350
4521.2709%22.6440%22260
4611.6100%16.8823%16596
474.0258%7.6070%7478

Maine - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
420.0417%0.0387%38
4334.9014%27.4017%26937
4425.6121%22.6746%22290
4530.2449%29.3142%28817
468.5231%17.3482%17054
470.6768%3.2227%3168

Princeton - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
432.6742%5.9865%5885
4412.6759%19.6706%19337
4523.1873%24.3286%23916
4641.7158%28.1453%27668
4719.7467%21.8689%21498

Michigan Tech - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
430.8704%2.4404%2399
444.5171%7.4178%7292
457.7688%11.0199%10833
4619.7494%21.4803%21116
4767.0942%57.6416%56664

Michigan State - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
4877.5366%70.2291%69038
4922.4634%29.7709%29266

RIT - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
4822.4634%29.7709%29266
4977.5366%70.2291%69038

Harvard - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
5093.4993%91.1143%89569
516.5007%8.8857%8735

Clarkson - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
506.5007%8.8857%8735
5193.4993%91.1143%89569

American Int'l - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
52100.0000%100.0000%98304

Northeastern - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
53100.0000%100.0000%98304

Bentley - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
54100.0000%100.0000%98304

Bemidji State - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
55100.0000%100.0000%98304

Alaska-Anchorage - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
56100.0000%100.0000%98304

Army - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
57100.0000%100.0000%98304

Sacred Heart - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
58100.0000%100.0000%98304

Alabama-Huntsville - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
59100.0000%100.0000%98304