Minnesota State wins

All weighted probabilities are generated using KRACH comparisons. The KRACH is static, it does not regenerate after each game. The current method of predicting a tie game using KRACH isn't the best, it overstates the likelihood of a tie against two closely matched teams, feel free to email reillyhamilton@gmail.com with suggestions.

TeamLikelihoodMost Likely Seed if in Tournament
Quinnipiac100.0000%1
Minnesota100.0000%2
Miami100.0000%3
Mass.-Lowell100.0000%3
Boston College100.0000%6
North Dakota100.0000%8
New Hampshire100.0000%9
Minnesota State100.0000%10
Denver99.8099%11
Niagara99.7486%6
Yale99.6685%8
St. Cloud State99.4815%12
Western Michigan88.6624%14
Notre Dame88.6226%13
Union62.7327%15
Rensselaer25.6316%16
Connecticut23.5290%16
Boston University19.9117%15
Providence18.8332%15
Mercyhurst17.4484%16
Ohio State14.3688%15
Canisius13.1246%16
Michigan11.7761%15
Brown10.3210%15
Colorado College3.6146%15
Robert Morris2.6977%16
Alaska-Fairbanks0.0172%16
Wisconsin0.0000%-
Dartmouth0.0000%-
Cornell0.0000%-
Ferris State0.0000%-
St. Lawrence0.0000%-
Holy Cross0.0000%-
Nebraska-Omaha0.0000%-
Air Force0.0000%-
Merrimack0.0000%-
Northern Michigan0.0000%-
Bowling Green0.0000%-
Colgate0.0000%-
Lake Superior0.0000%-
Minnesota-Duluth0.0000%-
Massachusetts0.0000%-
Penn State0.0000%-
Vermont0.0000%-
Maine0.0000%-
Princeton0.0000%-
Michigan Tech0.0000%-
Michigan State0.0000%-
RIT0.0000%-
Harvard0.0000%-
Clarkson0.0000%-
American Int'l0.0000%-
Northeastern0.0000%-
Bentley0.0000%-
Bemidji State0.0000%-
Alaska-Anchorage0.0000%-
Army0.0000%-
Sacred Heart0.0000%-
Alabama-Huntsville0.0000%-

Quinnipiac - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1100.0000%100.0000%196608

Minnesota - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
2100.0000%100.0000%196608

Miami - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
349.1748%44.9209%88318
429.1300%33.8552%66562
516.4144%16.4678%32377
64.8797%4.3620%8576
70.3941%0.3779%743
80.0070%0.0163%32

Mass.-Lowell - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
320.2670%19.0109%37377
412.8680%8.4386%16591
515.9683%15.4790%30433
620.0644%22.2412%43728
716.8322%18.8212%37004
89.1244%10.4411%20528
93.3345%4.3315%8516
101.3450%1.1663%2293
110.1962%0.0702%138

Boston College - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
316.5802%16.5456%32530
417.4482%14.4526%28415
517.2512%19.5053%38349
619.6117%21.3023%41882
716.1039%15.7379%30942
88.0389%7.3532%14457
92.9022%3.1225%6139
101.2436%1.3545%2663
110.6805%0.5422%1066
120.1397%0.0839%165

North Dakota - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
31.4516%2.5757%5064
45.1240%6.0043%11805
58.6279%8.5785%16866
69.5599%10.2249%20103
719.0086%19.8105%38949
823.3570%20.4030%40114
917.8675%18.6610%36689
1010.4972%10.7859%21206
114.2625%2.8107%5526
120.2438%0.1455%286

New Hampshire - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
50.0564%0.1892%372
61.9477%4.1260%8112
77.0775%11.6155%22837
822.7249%30.4815%59929
941.9523%36.9746%72695
1023.1784%14.4953%28499
113.0290%2.0772%4084
120.0335%0.0402%79
130.0004%0.0005%1

Minnesota State - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
36.8979%10.4050%20457
411.6315%10.5825%20806
59.9270%7.8064%15348
611.2075%8.8135%17328
711.4815%10.7595%21154
811.7515%11.6999%23003
911.4357%14.2151%27948
1012.6062%14.8468%29190
119.7241%8.8409%17382
123.3372%2.0304%3992

Denver - 99.8099% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
80.0676%0.0753%148
92.5479%3.9546%7775
1013.3072%16.3233%32093
1134.0373%33.9300%66709
1232.5737%31.1050%61155
1317.0395%12.8738%25311
140.2367%0.1811%356
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
170.1863%1.4745%2899
180.0038%0.0824%162

Niagara - 99.7486% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
43.6012%3.0446%5986
511.6995%7.6258%14993
614.6663%7.8273%15389
712.0808%6.2475%12283
88.2648%5.4810%10776
95.1790%4.5069%8861
107.9882%8.0770%15880
1113.8882%17.2902%33994
1213.8511%22.7086%44647
137.8996%13.2980%26145
140.6301%0.9771%1921
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
170.2444%2.6850%5279
180.0070%0.2309%454

Yale - 99.6685% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
32.7512%2.7918%5489
411.8982%13.2751%26100
511.8733%12.9278%25417
611.0899%13.0234%25605
711.6379%11.6603%22925
813.5120%10.8170%21267
99.1964%6.7713%13313
104.9697%4.7785%9395
116.8397%4.7643%9367
128.2706%6.0145%11825
135.4527%6.6594%13093
142.1323%3.8584%7586
150.0445%0.0646%127
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
170.3063%2.2247%4374
180.0252%0.3688%725

St. Cloud State - 99.4815% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
30.0180%0.1165%229
41.6504%4.8375%9511
54.6979%8.4773%16667
65.5119%6.6243%13024
74.4908%3.5365%6953
82.0682%1.2670%2491
92.1006%2.4094%4737
107.5162%8.4427%16599
1113.5435%10.9538%21536
1231.8707%22.7514%44731
1322.2774%21.9849%43224
143.7358%4.4093%8669
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
170.5039%3.8335%7537
180.0146%0.3560%700

Western Michigan - 88.6624% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1318.8145%13.6363%26810
1457.3222%37.4456%73621
1512.0386%8.9752%17646
160.4873%0.2930%576
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
179.8686%28.1392%55324
181.4163%10.4111%20469
190.0511%1.0920%2147
200.0016%0.0076%15

Notre Dame - 88.6226% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
32.8593%3.6336%7144
46.6486%5.5094%10832
53.4841%2.9429%5786
61.4609%1.4552%2861
70.8926%1.4333%2818
81.0834%1.9643%3862
93.4641%5.0054%9841
1017.1522%19.3024%37950
1111.9413%15.8920%31245
124.5234%6.5720%12921
1318.3617%9.8302%19327
146.8104%4.4912%8830
156.4010%3.3147%6517
163.5396%1.0488%2062
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
177.3175%8.5790%16867
183.0931%5.8192%11441
190.8670%2.6393%5189
200.0949%0.5229%1028
210.0049%0.0443%87

Union - 62.7327% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
80.0003%0.0005%1
90.0197%0.0478%94
100.1963%0.4272%840
111.8576%2.8285%5561
125.1346%7.9585%15647
136.2531%10.5520%20746
1412.3516%9.1420%17974
1531.1489%10.9568%21542
165.7705%1.5533%3054
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1721.9526%22.1990%43645
1810.1270%19.7576%38845
193.6628%9.7804%19229
201.2266%3.4215%6727
210.2650%1.0935%2150
220.0325%0.2579%507
230.0009%0.0234%46

Rensselaer - 25.6316% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.6485%0.5839%1148
142.6864%2.2634%4450
1510.4194%5.4647%10744
1611.8773%2.8875%5677
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1733.0683%21.9345%43125
1826.7768%31.9483%62813
1911.5006%23.8998%46989
202.7344%9.4884%18655
210.2819%1.4999%2949
220.0066%0.0295%58

Connecticut - 23.5290% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
150.2900%0.7319%1439
1623.2389%24.2681%47713
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
280.0522%0.0320%63
2915.2772%6.5191%12817
304.9650%4.9108%9655
317.0723%5.9021%11604
3227.7458%21.4589%42190
3321.3585%36.1771%71127

Boston University - 19.9117% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
120.0121%0.2970%584
132.7772%6.0333%11862
147.0283%11.7366%23075
157.7254%6.8771%13521
162.3687%0.7492%1473
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
175.7351%2.4841%4884
1812.0481%6.7459%13263
1922.3110%14.3773%28267
2023.9135%20.7158%40729
2111.3280%16.8950%33217
223.8380%8.8867%17472
230.7848%3.1214%6137
240.1174%0.9094%1788
250.0125%0.1709%336

Providence - 18.8332% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
120.0097%0.2930%576
130.4227%3.3758%6637
144.9494%11.0397%21705
1510.7027%9.1741%18037
162.7487%1.1770%2314
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
172.5073%0.6694%1316
187.4251%3.1682%6229
1913.8720%8.6075%16923
2017.9061%13.1933%25939
2116.0509%14.1520%27824
229.3074%10.8449%21322
236.0268%8.0073%15743
244.4947%6.4662%12713
252.6342%5.8573%11516
260.9163%3.6290%7135
270.0261%0.3454%679

Mercyhurst - 17.4484% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1617.4484%25.0000%49152
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
3521.5199%12.5000%24576
3654.1877%49.9934%98291
376.8229%12.4883%24553
380.0212%0.0183%36

Ohio State - 14.3688% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.2234%1.4715%2893
157.7346%17.7678%34933
166.4108%5.7607%11326
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
190.0043%0.0020%4
200.1354%0.0310%61
210.6174%0.1668%328
221.6360%0.5981%1176
232.4880%1.2878%2532
243.0863%2.4277%4773
254.7889%3.2679%6425
264.9370%5.0547%9938
274.2592%7.4834%14713
2821.1504%10.7198%21076
2927.9014%22.7946%44816
307.6120%11.8368%23272
315.4436%7.7215%15181
321.5713%1.6078%3161

Canisius - 13.1246% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1613.1246%25.0000%49152
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
390.0040%0.0041%8
4016.5348%24.9959%49144
4170.3365%50.0000%98304

Michigan - 11.7761% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
156.0810%18.0181%35425
165.6950%6.9819%13727
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
260.1774%0.0666%131
272.1150%1.9313%3797
286.1057%4.4317%8713
297.7286%9.7178%19106
302.6001%7.8420%15418
3113.5234%6.0186%11833
3247.1052%33.1161%65109
338.8685%11.8759%23349

Brown - 10.3210% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0528%1.1719%2304
141.5247%9.3384%18360
155.3101%11.6130%22832
163.4334%2.8768%5656
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
180.0565%0.0514%101
190.6868%0.6078%1195
205.2399%3.6092%7096
2119.5038%11.4614%22534
2219.8031%15.7293%30925
2311.9003%13.3931%26332
2410.1431%9.6736%19019
2511.3229%7.6757%15091
268.6726%8.6385%16984
272.2962%4.0619%7986
280.0536%0.0977%192
290.0001%0.0005%1

Colorado College - 3.6146% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.3641%3.6433%7163
151.9022%6.9473%13659
161.3482%1.9094%3754
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
210.0008%0.0005%1
220.6538%0.2772%545
231.3350%0.8759%1722
243.3931%2.2995%4521
2510.2500%6.9483%13661
2614.4665%16.1224%31698
2721.6457%19.0109%37377
2828.6199%20.3196%39950
2914.5538%17.7607%34919
301.4060%3.6107%7099
310.0597%0.2711%533
320.0012%0.0031%6

Robert Morris - 2.6977% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0047%0.0025%5
150.2015%0.0946%186
162.4914%0.4898%963
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1712.7381%4.7307%9301
1818.6171%13.7985%27129
1912.8991%18.1280%35641
207.3636%11.9161%23428
216.2699%5.3106%10441
225.6325%3.7354%7344
236.6685%5.5150%10843
2411.1072%8.4839%16680
2510.5020%13.2746%26099
265.1619%12.2584%24101
270.3425%2.2619%4447

Alaska-Fairbanks - 0.0172% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
160.0172%0.0046%9
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
170.4714%0.2090%411
182.4136%1.5177%2984
195.3555%4.8772%9589
207.7228%9.4691%18617
2110.3512%13.2304%26012
2211.3913%14.8463%29189
2313.5535%14.7654%29030
2423.3197%17.8940%35181
2520.6480%16.9474%33320
264.5756%5.7958%11395
270.1802%0.4430%871

Wisconsin - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
175.1003%0.8372%1646
1817.9260%5.7159%11238
1927.2608%15.3778%30234
2025.0942%23.4726%46149
2114.3997%22.9370%45096
227.0424%17.5145%34435
232.7043%10.6598%20958
240.4649%3.3112%6510
250.0074%0.1740%342

Dartmouth - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
180.0375%0.0178%35
191.0850%0.3387%666
205.9751%2.2659%4455
2115.0296%8.2123%16146
2229.3160%20.3028%39917
2327.8089%27.3610%53794
2414.6072%24.1765%47533
255.4710%15.0314%29553
260.6697%2.2934%4509

Cornell - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
180.0124%0.0102%20
190.4440%0.2721%535
202.5920%1.8865%3709
215.8969%4.9962%9823
2211.3404%6.9773%13718
2326.7291%14.9897%29471
2429.2665%24.3581%47890
2517.7325%26.0147%51147
265.6123%17.5354%34476
270.3738%2.9597%5819

Ferris State - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
259.1455%2.4343%4786
2628.6960%15.5909%30653
2734.5199%32.6426%64178
2821.7984%33.4951%65854
295.5967%14.3509%28215
300.2434%1.4862%2922

St. Lawrence - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
257.4852%2.2034%4332
2626.1146%13.0147%25588
2734.2412%28.8600%56741
2821.8327%30.1407%59259
298.3452%19.5709%38478
301.7024%5.5984%11007
310.2787%0.6119%1203

Holy Cross - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
280.3799%0.7497%1474
294.1305%3.2196%6330
3043.8184%28.9495%56917
3140.4732%40.9307%80473
3210.9167%24.5880%48342
330.2812%1.5625%3072

Nebraska-Omaha - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
280.0073%0.0137%27
2916.4664%6.0659%11926
3037.6527%35.7656%70318
3133.1491%38.5442%75781
3212.6598%19.2261%37800
330.0648%0.3845%756

Air Force - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
3369.4270%50.0000%98304
3430.5730%50.0000%98304

Merrimack - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
3469.4270%50.0000%98304
3530.5730%50.0000%98304

Northern Michigan - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
3547.9072%37.5000%73728
3645.8123%50.0066%98317
376.2805%12.4934%24563

Bowling Green - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
3756.6510%48.7778%95901
3841.1301%47.1268%92655
392.2189%4.0955%8052

Colgate - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
3730.2456%26.2405%51591
3858.8488%52.8549%103917
3910.9057%20.9045%41100

Lake Superior - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
3986.8714%74.9959%147448
4013.1286%25.0041%49160

Minnesota-Duluth - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
4070.3365%50.0000%98304
4129.6635%50.0000%98304

Massachusetts - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
4296.0265%93.8166%184451
433.9680%6.1747%12140
440.0055%0.0086%17

Penn State - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
423.7998%6.0150%11826
4333.5864%38.2116%75127
4418.1958%16.6606%32756
4517.6505%14.6912%28884
4621.3861%19.4387%38218
475.3813%4.9830%9797

Vermont - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
420.1272%0.1226%241
4321.8798%14.7914%29081
4437.5602%30.6320%60225
4524.7413%28.2873%55615
4613.1477%22.3633%43968
472.5439%3.8035%7478

Maine - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
420.0465%0.0458%90
4335.3204%26.9063%52900
4426.1071%25.8275%50779
4529.5644%29.1245%57261
468.5340%16.4846%32410
470.4276%1.6113%3168

Princeton - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
434.6955%12.6958%24961
4415.2770%23.1623%45539
4523.1348%22.3872%44015
4644.4150%30.8202%60595
4712.4776%10.9344%21498

Michigan Tech - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
430.5500%1.2202%2399
442.8543%3.7089%7292
454.9090%5.5099%10833
4612.5172%10.8932%21417
4779.1695%78.6677%154667

Michigan State - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
4871.5175%57.5816%113210
4928.4825%42.4184%83398

RIT - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
4828.4825%42.4184%83398
4971.5175%57.5816%113210

Harvard - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
5081.4467%70.2550%138127
5118.5533%29.7450%58481

Clarkson - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
5018.5533%29.7450%58481
5181.4467%70.2550%138127

American Int'l - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
52100.0000%100.0000%196608

Northeastern - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
53100.0000%100.0000%196608

Bentley - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
54100.0000%100.0000%196608

Bemidji State - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
55100.0000%100.0000%196608

Alaska-Anchorage - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
56100.0000%100.0000%196608

Army - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
57100.0000%100.0000%196608

Sacred Heart - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
58100.0000%100.0000%196608

Alabama-Huntsville - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
59100.0000%100.0000%196608