Wisconsin and Colorado College win

All weighted probabilities are generated using KRACH comparisons. The KRACH is static, it does not regenerate after each game. The current method of predicting a tie game using KRACH isn't the best, it overstates the likelihood of a tie against two closely matched teams, feel free to email reillyhamilton@gmail.com with suggestions.

TeamLikelihoodMost Likely Seed if in Tournament
Quinnipiac100.0000%1
Minnesota100.0000%2
Miami100.0000%3
Boston College100.0000%5
Mass.-Lowell100.0000%6
North Dakota100.0000%8
New Hampshire100.0000%9
Minnesota State99.8626%10
Denver99.5517%12
Yale99.4876%5
Niagara99.2316%5
St. Cloud State98.3614%12
Notre Dame86.1227%13
Western Michigan82.4772%14
Union55.0275%15
Wisconsin23.9225%14
Connecticut23.5290%16
Boston University19.7129%15
Providence18.7909%15
Mercyhurst17.4484%16
Rensselaer15.2229%16
Ohio State14.3688%15
Canisius13.1246%16
Michigan11.7761%15
Colorado College10.7909%15
Brown10.3210%15
Robert Morris0.8699%16
Alaska-Fairbanks0.0000%-
Dartmouth0.0000%-
Cornell0.0000%-
St. Lawrence0.0000%-
Ferris State0.0000%-
Nebraska-Omaha0.0000%-
Holy Cross0.0000%-
Air Force0.0000%-
Merrimack0.0000%-
Northern Michigan0.0000%-
Bowling Green0.0000%-
Colgate0.0000%-
Lake Superior0.0000%-
Minnesota-Duluth0.0000%-
Penn State0.0000%-
Massachusetts0.0000%-
Maine0.0000%-
Vermont0.0000%-
Princeton0.0000%-
Michigan Tech0.0000%-
Michigan State0.0000%-
RIT0.0000%-
Harvard0.0000%-
Clarkson0.0000%-
American Int'l0.0000%-
Northeastern0.0000%-
Bentley0.0000%-
Bemidji State0.0000%-
Alaska-Anchorage0.0000%-
Army0.0000%-
Sacred Heart0.0000%-
Alabama-Huntsville0.0000%-

Quinnipiac - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1100.0000%100.0000%98304

Minnesota - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
2100.0000%100.0000%98304

Miami - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
356.1112%55.3965%54457
431.9449%34.7931%34203
59.8530%8.0607%7924
62.0679%1.7049%1676
70.0229%0.0448%44

Boston College - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
318.9049%18.7500%18432
422.4353%23.9197%23514
525.8748%28.6611%28175
620.5464%18.9036%18583
79.6991%7.6579%7528
82.3791%1.9613%1928
90.1604%0.1465%144

Mass.-Lowell - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
318.7387%17.9688%17664
411.5072%7.0231%6904
515.8733%16.9250%16638
627.7294%30.5186%30001
717.8648%17.9474%17643
87.0447%8.0699%7933
91.2040%1.4923%1467
100.0380%0.0549%54

North Dakota - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
51.1149%2.7832%2736
65.1446%9.9436%9775
720.9748%27.1698%26709
824.9282%22.0927%21718
920.1228%21.6624%21295
1020.8935%13.3280%13102
116.8163%3.0182%2967
120.0049%0.0020%2

New Hampshire - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
50.2384%0.5107%502
62.4002%4.8279%4746
710.1699%15.2171%14959
833.4343%41.0787%40382
946.8625%33.2947%32730
106.8405%4.9876%4903
110.0542%0.0834%82

Minnesota State - 99.8626% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
50.0195%0.0203%20
60.3128%0.3052%300
72.0163%1.1851%1165
82.9950%4.4393%4364
913.5535%19.0592%18736
1034.0109%34.2499%33669
1128.4369%26.1759%25732
1215.9907%11.5021%11307
132.3795%1.9806%1947
140.1474%0.1292%127
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
170.1318%0.8667%852
180.0056%0.0865%85

Denver - 99.5517% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
70.0003%0.0010%1
80.5002%0.7731%760
92.9049%5.3111%5221
1013.6629%18.9016%18581
1128.8725%30.0242%29515
1233.9035%29.1239%28630
1319.4089%12.6434%12429
140.2986%0.1719%169
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
170.4271%2.7608%2714
180.0212%0.2889%284

Yale - 99.4876% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
31.3815%1.3967%1373
414.3960%15.9922%15721
519.5730%21.4447%21081
616.0171%16.8132%16528
715.7359%12.0880%11883
88.3327%6.2683%6162
94.0300%3.9307%3864
104.5095%2.7150%2669
114.0033%2.7181%2672
124.8780%4.0100%3942
134.4741%5.4352%5343
141.9201%3.1342%3081
150.2046%0.3774%371
160.0319%0.0244%24
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
170.4536%2.9134%2864
180.0558%0.6938%682
190.0029%0.0448%44

Niagara - 99.2316% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
47.0042%5.6844%5588
518.0265%10.4970%10319
617.1739%8.5449%8400
711.0282%7.0007%6882
84.3452%3.1311%3078
91.4216%2.2959%2257
103.7112%5.2297%5141
118.9026%11.9080%11706
1214.0171%20.2250%19882
1312.2185%17.1183%16828
141.3365%1.8127%1782
150.0461%0.0509%50
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
170.7258%5.7170%5620
180.0426%0.7843%771

St. Cloud State - 98.3614% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
30.0359%0.2055%202
42.6520%5.9621%5861
56.7562%9.4096%9250
68.4567%7.9356%7801
711.6589%9.3587%9200
815.1514%9.7839%9618
96.6195%4.9886%4904
102.9935%3.3162%3260
117.1142%7.6192%7490
1218.8193%15.4307%15169
1314.7664%13.4878%13259
142.9511%3.2491%3194
150.3862%0.3784%372
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
171.4800%7.0750%6955
180.1586%1.7995%1769

Notre Dame - 86.1227% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
34.8279%6.2826%6176
410.0603%6.6254%6513
52.6704%1.6876%1659
60.1510%0.5025%494
70.8288%2.3295%2290
80.8893%2.4017%2361
93.1182%7.8044%7672
1013.1104%16.4419%16163
1113.0818%13.5284%13299
125.2046%6.4331%6324
1315.2479%7.9132%7779
147.9644%4.2694%4197
155.9940%2.7110%2665
162.9738%0.7558%743
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
179.4456%9.8643%9697
183.8441%7.8939%7760
190.5690%2.3926%2352
200.0187%0.1628%160

Western Michigan - 82.4772% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1317.5764%10.7015%10520
1450.5450%28.6713%28185
1513.7441%8.3506%8209
160.6117%0.3560%350
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1713.9997%30.8116%30289
183.2241%17.1509%16860
190.2989%3.9561%3889
200.0000%0.0020%2

Union - 55.0275% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
90.0027%0.0142%14
100.1008%0.4211%414
111.3923%2.6560%2611
124.6075%8.1401%8002
136.4330%10.0728%9902
1411.5432%7.8562%7723
1525.5066%7.5195%7392
165.4416%1.2319%1211
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1722.5971%18.4052%18093
1812.8962%20.3796%20034
195.5451%13.3687%13142
202.5665%5.8543%5755
211.0281%2.5085%2466
220.2873%1.1770%1157
230.0459%0.3286%323
240.0060%0.0600%59
250.0004%0.0061%6

Wisconsin - 23.9225% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
100.1289%0.3540%348
111.3260%2.2685%2230
122.5180%3.9612%3894
134.8306%8.2652%8125
147.4376%8.6405%8494
154.7895%2.4231%2382
162.8920%0.4232%416
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1713.6156%4.5034%4427
1821.5144%11.6455%11448
1920.7282%18.0806%17774
2013.1012%18.7266%18409
215.2971%12.6211%12407
221.5056%5.9794%5878
230.2903%1.8097%1779
240.0242%0.2787%274
250.0009%0.0193%19

Connecticut - 23.5290% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
150.1369%0.3550%349
1623.3921%24.6450%24227
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
2915.9669%6.1035%6000
309.3328%8.5297%8385
313.6426%6.1117%6008
3223.8492%16.5456%16265
3323.6680%37.6556%37017
340.0115%0.0539%53

Boston University - 19.7129% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
120.0274%0.5859%576
131.8960%5.7292%5632
146.6107%11.2040%11014
158.7140%7.3232%7199
162.4648%0.9664%950
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
174.8858%2.3956%2355
189.3990%5.7800%5682
1917.1169%10.0393%9869
2024.1162%16.4815%16202
2115.7310%17.7745%17473
226.8060%12.9557%12736
231.7965%6.1747%6070
240.3904%2.2176%2180
250.0453%0.3723%366

Providence - 18.7909% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
120.0290%0.5859%576
130.6111%4.3091%4236
144.8579%10.6232%10443
159.4976%8.1523%8014
163.7952%1.3774%1354
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
171.0427%0.2747%270
184.4011%1.2044%1184
1913.6201%5.1036%5017
2021.0447%12.1287%11923
2118.4197%16.9820%16694
2211.1449%14.4958%14250
236.0066%10.2203%10047
243.1283%6.6233%6511
251.9138%5.5837%5489
260.4739%2.2054%2168
270.0132%0.1302%128

Mercyhurst - 17.4484% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1617.4484%25.0000%24576
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
3521.5199%12.5000%12288
3653.8780%49.5219%48682
377.0966%12.9232%12704
380.0572%0.0549%54

Rensselaer - 15.2229% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.9491%0.5971%587
156.2107%2.6306%2586
168.0632%1.7426%1713
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1724.5854%12.0941%11889
1828.4231%22.9960%22606
1919.8635%27.2654%26803
208.6476%19.5282%19197
212.5920%9.2550%9098
220.5937%3.1626%3109
230.0695%0.6704%659
240.0023%0.0580%57

Ohio State - 14.3688% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.6218%2.9521%2902
157.6734%16.7867%16502
166.0737%5.2612%5172
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
200.0112%0.0041%4
210.6522%0.1302%128
221.8961%0.6327%622
233.4625%1.8311%1800
243.6354%2.9622%2912
253.3399%3.1647%3111
263.0690%2.9246%2875
273.0628%4.5614%4484
2822.6081%14.2965%14054
2933.1301%25.6694%25234
306.2298%12.6862%12471
314.5342%6.1371%6033

Canisius - 13.1246% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1613.1246%25.0000%24576
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
4016.5389%25.0000%24576
4169.0330%48.5748%47751
421.3035%1.4252%1401

Michigan - 11.7761% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
156.2342%18.3950%18083
165.5419%6.6050%6493
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
272.5900%1.9826%1949
286.3220%5.0334%4948
297.4430%9.2926%9135
302.9338%8.6914%8544
3114.7503%6.1228%6019
3248.1710%35.3729%34773
336.0138%8.5042%8360

Colorado College - 10.7909% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
141.0062%6.8990%6782
155.6870%14.1459%13906
164.0977%3.9551%3888
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
210.0982%0.0295%29
222.2085%0.9125%897
234.0534%2.2125%2175
2410.3429%5.9967%5895
2527.4883%15.4388%15177
2632.5787%28.3335%27853
2712.4392%22.0764%21702

Brown - 10.3210% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.1575%2.3438%2304
141.8104%9.7900%9624
155.1753%10.4004%10224
163.1777%2.4658%2424
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
190.6544%0.2431%239
206.4923%2.4709%2429
2118.5017%9.8012%9635
2215.7023%14.1266%13887
2311.0555%13.3179%13092
248.1756%10.0250%9855
2510.8707%8.1472%8009
2611.8194%8.8053%8656
275.6446%6.7952%6680
280.6594%1.0712%1053
290.0888%0.1526%150
300.0145%0.0437%43

Robert Morris - 0.8699% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
160.8699%0.1902%187
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
176.3579%2.2013%2164
1814.0452%8.3181%8177
1915.5930%15.8844%15615
209.0683%15.1449%14888
214.8633%7.9631%7828
225.9955%3.5889%3528
239.7417%5.4372%5345
2412.0091%8.3923%8250
2511.5888%11.6903%11492
268.1483%14.5121%14266
271.7189%6.6772%6564

Alaska-Fairbanks - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
170.2519%0.1170%115
181.9690%0.9786%962
194.8602%3.3956%3338
207.7400%7.1350%7014
2110.8329%12.2050%11998
2214.1862%16.9444%16657
2318.1861%19.7683%19433
2420.1688%19.6035%19271
2515.5428%13.2975%13072
265.7550%5.7699%5672
270.5071%0.7853%772

Dartmouth - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
191.0368%0.2024%199
206.1903%1.9379%1905
2119.0665%8.8359%8686
2232.5369%22.0469%21673
2324.6161%28.2125%27734
2412.3287%23.3337%22938
253.7979%13.1694%12946
260.4268%2.2614%2223

Cornell - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
190.1107%0.0234%23
201.0030%0.4232%416
212.9174%1.8941%1862
227.1370%3.9775%3910
2320.6759%10.0169%9847
2429.7691%20.4407%20094
2525.1991%29.0222%28530
2611.3424%25.6927%25257
271.8455%8.5093%8365

St. Lawrence - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
240.0193%0.0081%8
250.2123%0.0885%87
2618.6747%7.2754%7152
2737.4894%28.8564%28367
2826.1829%28.8452%28356
2914.7970%26.8982%26442
302.6243%8.0282%7892

Ferris State - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
267.7117%2.2196%2182
2734.6893%19.6259%19293
2844.2276%50.7538%49893
2912.8931%25.4100%24979
300.4783%1.9908%1957

Nebraska-Omaha - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
2914.0325%4.8981%4815
3055.2538%38.8214%38163
3118.8931%35.7249%35119
3211.7043%19.8700%19533
330.1162%0.6856%674

Holy Cross - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
291.6486%1.5757%1549
3023.1327%21.2087%20849
3158.1797%45.9035%45125
3216.2755%28.2115%27733
330.7634%3.1006%3048

Air Force - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
3369.4386%50.0539%49205
3430.5614%49.9461%49099

Merrimack - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
3469.4270%50.0000%49152
3530.5730%50.0000%49152

Northern Michigan - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
3547.9072%37.5000%36864
3646.1220%50.4781%49622
375.9708%12.0219%11818

Bowling Green - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
3755.6214%47.5037%46698
3842.0216%48.1079%47292
392.3569%4.3884%4314

Colgate - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
3731.3112%27.5513%27084
3857.9212%51.8372%50958
3910.7676%20.6116%20262

Lake Superior - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
3986.8754%75.0000%73728
4013.1246%25.0000%24576

Minnesota-Duluth - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
4070.3365%50.0000%49152
4129.6635%50.0000%49152

Penn State - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
411.3035%1.4252%1401
4228.6529%37.5427%36906
4342.7074%38.2253%37577
4412.8786%10.0871%9916
458.8875%8.8379%8688
465.5701%3.8818%3816

Massachusetts - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
4269.9552%60.9416%59908
4330.0084%39.0238%38362
440.0364%0.0346%34

Maine - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
420.0877%0.0885%87
4319.3951%13.4226%13195
4435.2195%33.0770%32516
4535.6459%35.9690%35359
469.6519%17.4428%17147

Vermont - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
420.0007%0.0020%2
435.4603%2.6276%2583
4437.7405%29.9255%29418
4533.4967%30.1229%29612
4623.3012%37.3169%36684
470.0007%0.0051%5

Princeton - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
432.4288%6.7006%6587
4414.1251%26.8758%26420
4521.9699%25.0702%24645
4661.4762%41.3534%40652

Michigan Tech - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
460.0007%0.0051%5
4799.9993%99.9949%98299

Michigan State - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
4874.9712%61.5031%60460
4925.0288%38.4969%37844

RIT - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
4825.0288%38.4969%37844
4974.9712%61.5031%60460

Harvard - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
5061.4399%50.7385%49878
5138.5601%49.2615%48426

Clarkson - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
5038.5601%49.2615%48426
5161.4399%50.7385%49878

American Int'l - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
52100.0000%100.0000%98304

Northeastern - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
53100.0000%100.0000%98304

Bentley - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
54100.0000%100.0000%98304

Bemidji State - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
55100.0000%100.0000%98304

Alaska-Anchorage - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
56100.0000%100.0000%98304

Army - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
57100.0000%100.0000%98304

Sacred Heart - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
58100.0000%100.0000%98304

Alabama-Huntsville - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
59100.0000%100.0000%98304