Wisconsin and North Dakota win

All weighted probabilities are generated using KRACH comparisons. The KRACH is static, it does not regenerate after each game. The current method of predicting a tie game using KRACH isn't the best, it overstates the likelihood of a tie against two closely matched teams, feel free to email reillyhamilton@gmail.com with suggestions.

TeamLikelihoodMost Likely Seed if in Tournament
Quinnipiac100.0000%1
Minnesota100.0000%2
Miami100.0000%3
Boston College100.0000%6
Mass.-Lowell100.0000%6
North Dakota100.0000%7
New Hampshire100.0000%9
Minnesota State99.9326%11
Denver99.6907%12
Niagara99.5046%6
Yale99.4020%7
St. Cloud State98.8188%12
Notre Dame87.4213%13
Western Michigan85.6633%14
Union57.6600%15
Connecticut23.5290%16
Wisconsin23.2433%14
Boston University19.5899%15
Providence18.7015%15
Mercyhurst17.4484%16
Ohio State14.3688%15
Rensselaer14.2025%16
Canisius13.1246%16
Michigan11.7761%15
Brown10.3210%15
Robert Morris5.5178%16
Alaska-Fairbanks0.0840%16
Dartmouth0.0000%-
Cornell0.0000%-
St. Lawrence0.0000%-
Ferris State0.0000%-
Colorado College0.0000%-
Holy Cross0.0000%-
Nebraska-Omaha0.0000%-
Air Force0.0000%-
Merrimack0.0000%-
Northern Michigan0.0000%-
Bowling Green0.0000%-
Colgate0.0000%-
Lake Superior0.0000%-
Minnesota-Duluth0.0000%-
Penn State0.0000%-
Massachusetts0.0000%-
Maine0.0000%-
Vermont0.0000%-
Michigan Tech0.0000%-
Princeton0.0000%-
Michigan State0.0000%-
RIT0.0000%-
Harvard0.0000%-
Clarkson0.0000%-
American Int'l0.0000%-
Northeastern0.0000%-
Bentley0.0000%-
Bemidji State0.0000%-
Alaska-Anchorage0.0000%-
Army0.0000%-
Sacred Heart0.0000%-
Alabama-Huntsville0.0000%-

Quinnipiac - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1100.0000%100.0000%98304

Minnesota - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
2100.0000%100.0000%98304

Miami - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
355.6695%53.9886%53073
427.3777%32.6152%32062
514.3265%11.2701%11079
62.5353%2.0447%2010
70.0910%0.0814%80

Boston College - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
318.9049%18.7500%18432
420.0972%16.9922%16704
520.2256%22.2188%21842
621.3717%21.6960%21328
712.5049%12.7248%12509
85.1048%5.4901%5397
91.3121%1.5656%1539
100.3030%0.4161%409
110.1757%0.1465%144

Mass.-Lowell - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
317.7530%16.9434%16656
413.2033%8.8186%8669
517.2790%16.6128%16331
621.5256%22.4843%22103
718.2204%22.1425%21767
88.0953%9.7290%9564
93.4905%2.8503%2802
100.4181%0.4110%404
110.0148%0.0081%8

North Dakota - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
31.8999%4.3365%4263
49.4508%14.0076%13770
514.4409%17.8630%17560
620.5228%23.0916%22700
727.3122%22.7712%22385
819.7638%12.6760%12461
94.7751%3.8767%3811
101.3524%1.1139%1095
110.4822%0.2635%259

New Hampshire - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
61.2229%2.5757%2532
77.3317%10.9558%10770
828.7364%34.2489%33668
940.1536%35.4421%34841
1018.0481%13.2233%12999
114.0899%3.2756%3220
120.4153%0.2757%271
130.0022%0.0031%3

Minnesota State - 99.9326% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
60.0685%0.1027%101
71.0110%1.4028%1379
87.8395%8.4452%8302
915.5807%19.0684%18745
1027.9796%30.1626%29651
1128.2808%26.0498%25608
1217.0404%12.6251%12411
132.0236%1.6123%1585
140.1085%0.1068%105
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
170.0653%0.3937%387
180.0021%0.0305%30

Denver - 99.6907% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
70.0108%0.0163%16
80.3710%0.4181%411
92.1275%3.5970%3536
1011.1513%16.1123%15839
1128.9555%30.5939%30075
1234.1577%31.3711%30839
1321.9382%15.5080%15245
140.9483%0.6226%612
150.0304%0.0193%19
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
170.3040%1.6764%1648
180.0053%0.0651%64

Niagara - 99.5046% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
44.7316%3.8818%3816
513.4699%8.2520%8112
615.9928%7.6365%7507
79.9704%5.0201%4935
85.2393%4.6682%4589
96.5272%7.6233%7494
109.2885%8.3883%8246
118.1948%10.6934%10512
1212.5865%19.0928%18769
1312.0180%18.4764%18163
141.4386%2.1291%2093
150.0470%0.0590%58
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
170.4772%3.8045%3740
180.0181%0.2747%270

Yale - 99.4020% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
31.6219%1.2624%1241
411.4062%12.3525%12143
512.4622%13.1480%12925
69.0717%11.6506%11453
716.1707%16.7816%16497
815.7144%12.7248%12509
99.6806%7.1818%7060
106.2669%4.3783%4304
114.9940%3.0528%3001
125.0354%3.9876%3920
134.3309%5.4433%5351
142.3017%3.9307%3864
150.3245%0.5452%536
160.0210%0.0122%12
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
170.4905%2.6113%2567
180.0912%0.7792%766
190.0151%0.1424%140
200.0013%0.0153%15

St. Cloud State - 98.8188% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
41.4863%3.6448%3583
54.6832%7.5602%7432
65.7853%6.8776%6761
76.3075%5.6244%5529
86.6543%6.6284%6516
910.0170%8.5337%8389
1012.6950%9.4849%9324
1114.4685%11.5835%11387
1219.6169%15.9800%15709
1313.3822%13.7166%13484
143.2699%3.7679%3704
150.4528%0.4293%422
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
171.0844%5.1961%5108
180.0968%0.9725%956

Notre Dame - 87.4213% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
34.1508%4.7190%4639
412.2470%7.6874%7557
53.1126%3.0752%3023
61.9034%1.8402%1809
71.0697%2.4790%2437
82.4809%4.9662%4882
96.2950%10.1217%9950
1012.0590%15.2435%14985
117.2145%9.2244%9068
124.2108%5.5349%5441
1317.7829%8.5948%8449
145.8542%4.6295%4551
156.0174%3.5482%3488
163.0232%0.8962%881
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
178.1347%9.0393%8886
183.5312%5.8858%5786
190.8531%2.1566%2120
200.0597%0.3581%352

Western Michigan - 85.6633% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1315.4706%11.2935%11102
1454.0213%34.4686%33884
1515.5633%10.9019%10717
160.6080%0.4038%397
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1711.8101%28.5350%28051
182.3433%12.4074%12197
190.1824%1.9826%1949
200.0009%0.0071%7

Union - 57.6600% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
80.0004%0.0051%5
90.0406%0.1394%137
100.3049%0.6826%671
111.6421%2.5828%2539
124.2339%6.8695%6753
135.8408%10.0423%9872
1412.3140%9.5937%9431
1527.7744%9.8307%9664
165.5088%1.5066%1481
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1721.0043%19.8466%19510
1811.7686%18.9789%18657
195.5768%10.9772%10791
202.7350%5.2745%5185
210.9971%2.5543%2511
220.2255%0.9186%903
230.0273%0.1506%148
240.0055%0.0468%46

Connecticut - 23.5290% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
150.1080%0.2574%253
1623.4210%24.7426%24323
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
2912.7838%4.0558%3987
307.0116%5.5603%5466
315.5929%5.7088%5612
3226.5390%19.3766%19048
3324.5438%40.2985%39615

Wisconsin - 23.2433% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
100.1332%0.3835%377
111.4872%2.5258%2483
122.7015%4.2562%4184
134.7761%8.4605%8317
146.7782%8.2235%8084
154.4615%2.4984%2456
162.9056%0.6358%625
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1712.6031%5.4209%5329
1821.0694%12.0015%11798
1922.4493%18.6534%18337
2013.8613%19.0440%18721
215.1040%11.5529%11357
221.3991%4.8269%4745
230.2556%1.3641%1341
240.0150%0.1526%150

Boston University - 19.5899% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
120.0016%0.0071%7
132.1432%4.4769%4401
146.2780%11.6892%11491
158.8075%8.6253%8479
162.3595%1.1129%1094
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
174.8821%2.6988%2653
189.0889%5.9794%5878
1917.6608%11.2427%11052
2025.8673%19.2607%18934
2115.5434%18.7042%18387
226.1966%11.5987%11402
231.0876%3.8981%3832
240.0835%0.7060%694

Providence - 18.7015% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.2913%2.3722%2332
144.2255%10.6496%10469
159.9502%10.1695%9997
164.2345%1.8463%1815
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
171.0010%0.2614%257
184.4100%1.2634%1242
1913.9788%5.6722%5576
2020.2677%12.5153%12303
2118.4294%16.9352%16648
2210.7974%13.8885%13653
236.6362%10.2854%10111
243.3032%6.5694%6458
251.9117%5.3365%5246
260.5632%2.2349%2197

Mercyhurst - 17.4484% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1617.4484%25.0000%24576
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
3521.5199%12.5000%12288
3653.7572%49.2320%48397
377.1932%13.1643%12941
380.0814%0.1038%102

Ohio State - 14.3688% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.1128%0.6266%616
157.7520%18.3339%18023
166.5040%6.0394%5937
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
200.1679%0.0519%51
210.5598%0.2065%203
222.8896%1.1770%1157
235.2675%3.2776%3222
244.8597%4.5349%4458
252.6670%3.3203%3264
263.7973%4.6590%4580
276.1959%9.1756%9020
2818.4115%7.5745%7446
2924.0920%17.9698%17665
3010.8263%13.8529%13618
315.8967%9.2000%9044

Rensselaer - 14.2025% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.9531%0.6602%649
156.3917%3.0507%2999
166.8577%1.7731%1743
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1722.9325%12.2782%12070
1827.6026%22.4040%22024
1921.0443%26.1007%25658
2010.2343%20.0500%19710
213.2488%10.1410%9969
220.6745%3.0579%3006
230.0589%0.4659%458
240.0016%0.0183%18

Canisius - 13.1246% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1613.1246%25.0000%24576
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
4016.5389%25.0000%24576
4169.0634%48.3582%47538
421.2732%1.6418%1614

Michigan - 11.7761% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
156.2631%18.4926%18179
165.5130%6.5074%6397
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
260.6079%0.3672%361
272.3640%2.3478%2308
285.6777%3.6102%3549
297.8617%10.5499%10371
302.5227%7.1472%7026
3115.0837%7.2113%7089
3248.3913%35.9100%35301
335.7150%7.8562%7723

Brown - 10.3210% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
141.3808%8.8867%8736
155.3781%12.8255%12608
163.5621%3.2878%3232
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
190.4375%0.2380%234
205.1734%2.5391%2496
2120.5856%12.0239%11820
2221.4724%18.5252%18211
2312.5348%15.8152%15547
2412.0086%10.6913%10510
2510.5912%6.8756%6759
265.8102%6.2764%6170
270.9753%1.8280%1797
280.0880%0.1790%176
290.0020%0.0081%8

Robert Morris - 5.5178% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0152%0.0153%15
150.6781%0.4130%406
164.8246%1.2014%1181
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1714.1366%7.7494%7618
1815.9808%16.5466%16266
199.2460%16.4703%16191
204.5674%7.6558%7526
214.9946%2.8371%2789
226.3830%3.4078%3350
239.4184%5.7180%5621
2412.4678%9.6049%9442
2512.0291%15.4266%15165
265.2584%12.9537%12734

Alaska-Fairbanks - 0.0840% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
160.0840%0.0346%34
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
171.0743%0.4883%480
183.9917%2.4109%2370
197.8523%6.1941%6089
2011.6210%11.2803%11089
2112.0317%15.1774%14920
2213.3745%17.3818%17087
2316.1723%18.2078%17899
2416.7818%15.4287%15167
2514.5068%11.2437%11053
262.5095%2.1525%2116

Dartmouth - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
190.6363%0.1587%156
204.5825%1.5757%1549
2115.1473%7.5684%7440
2230.2381%20.5282%20180
2329.7455%29.5776%29076
2414.6172%25.8026%25365
254.6567%13.9099%13674
260.3765%0.8789%864

Cornell - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
190.0673%0.0112%11
200.8603%0.3723%366
213.3583%2.2990%2260
226.3494%4.6895%4610
2318.7959%11.2396%11049
2435.7981%26.4140%25966
2526.8925%34.2957%33714
267.8782%20.6787%20328

St. Lawrence - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
240.0580%0.0305%30
258.6489%3.4322%3374
2623.9934%14.4012%14157
2734.5831%25.6775%25242
2822.6539%30.9814%30456
297.3366%17.0848%16795
302.0856%6.4087%6300
310.6405%1.9836%1950

Ferris State - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
2518.0187%6.0577%5955
2644.0667%32.8908%32333
2731.9596%46.8669%46072
285.6988%13.4440%13216
290.2542%0.7273%715
300.0020%0.0132%13

Colorado College - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
250.0775%0.1017%100
265.1387%2.5065%2464
2723.8911%14.0747%13836
2843.6822%39.1408%38477
2923.2532%33.2509%32687
303.5438%9.4818%9321
310.4135%1.4435%1419

Holy Cross - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
270.0311%0.0295%29
283.7877%5.0700%4984
2914.7342%13.7278%13495
3054.7353%42.5913%41869
3122.7500%30.2389%29726
323.9617%8.3425%8201

Nebraska-Omaha - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
299.6823%2.6255%2581
3019.2727%14.9445%14691
3149.6227%44.2139%43464
3221.1080%36.3708%35754
330.3142%1.8453%1814

Air Force - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
3369.4270%50.0000%49152
3430.5730%50.0000%49152

Merrimack - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
3469.4270%50.0000%49152
3530.5730%50.0000%49152

Northern Michigan - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
3547.9072%37.5000%36864
3646.2351%50.7660%49905
375.8578%11.7340%11535

Bowling Green - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
360.0078%0.0020%2
3762.9119%56.7678%55805
3835.6658%41.0421%40346
391.4145%2.1881%2151

Colgate - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
3724.0371%18.3339%18023
3864.2527%58.8542%57856
3911.7101%22.8119%22425

Lake Superior - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
3986.8754%75.0000%73728
4013.1246%25.0000%24576

Minnesota-Duluth - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
4070.3365%50.0000%49152
4129.6635%50.0000%49152

Penn State - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
411.2732%1.6418%1614
4230.2532%42.2801%41563
4341.5274%36.9975%36370
4413.1829%9.3231%9165
458.1360%5.1615%5074
464.6109%3.6174%3556
471.0164%0.9786%962

Massachusetts - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
4268.3264%55.9458%54997
4331.4641%43.7988%43056
440.2095%0.2553%251

Maine - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
420.0743%0.0539%53
4318.3119%12.4522%12241
4431.7821%29.0202%28528
4539.7425%35.8449%35237
469.2115%18.7042%18387
470.8777%3.9246%3858

Vermont - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
420.0729%0.0783%77
437.9567%4.9398%4856
4444.3684%41.3798%40678
4527.4596%23.8332%23429
4613.4664%18.1681%17860
476.6760%11.6007%11404

Michigan Tech - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
430.4062%1.0081%991
444.0703%7.8349%7702
458.4479%11.6435%11446
4623.7183%25.0590%24634
4763.3574%54.4545%53531

Princeton - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
430.3337%0.8036%790
446.3867%12.1867%11980
4516.2141%23.5168%23118
4648.9930%34.4513%33867
4728.0725%29.0415%28549

Michigan State - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
4888.0888%84.0169%82592
4911.9112%15.9831%15712

RIT - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
4811.9112%15.9831%15712
4988.0888%84.0169%82592

Harvard - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
5093.6877%91.4368%89886
516.3123%8.5632%8418

Clarkson - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
506.3123%8.5632%8418
5193.6877%91.4368%89886

American Int'l - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
52100.0000%100.0000%98304

Northeastern - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
53100.0000%100.0000%98304

Bentley - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
54100.0000%100.0000%98304

Bemidji State - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
55100.0000%100.0000%98304

Alaska-Anchorage - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
56100.0000%100.0000%98304

Army - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
57100.0000%100.0000%98304

Sacred Heart - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
58100.0000%100.0000%98304

Alabama-Huntsville - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
59100.0000%100.0000%98304