Wisconsin wins

All weighted probabilities are generated using KRACH comparisons. The KRACH is static, it does not regenerate after each game. The current method of predicting a tie game using KRACH isn't the best, it overstates the likelihood of a tie against two closely matched teams, feel free to email reillyhamilton@gmail.com with suggestions.

TeamLikelihoodMost Likely Seed if in Tournament
Quinnipiac100.0000%1
Minnesota100.0000%2
Miami100.0000%3
Boston College100.0000%5
Mass.-Lowell100.0000%6
North Dakota100.0000%7
New Hampshire100.0000%9
Minnesota State99.9068%10
Denver99.6395%12
Yale99.4335%7
Niagara99.4041%6
St. Cloud State98.6504%12
Notre Dame86.9433%13
Western Michigan84.4904%14
Union56.6909%15
Connecticut23.5290%16
Wisconsin23.4933%14
Boston University19.6352%15
Providence18.7344%15
Mercyhurst17.4484%16
Rensselaer14.5781%16
Ohio State14.3688%15
Canisius13.1246%16
Michigan11.7761%15
Brown10.3210%15
Colorado College3.9723%15
Robert Morris3.8069%16
Alaska-Fairbanks0.0531%16
Dartmouth0.0000%-
Cornell0.0000%-
St. Lawrence0.0000%-
Ferris State0.0000%-
Holy Cross0.0000%-
Nebraska-Omaha0.0000%-
Air Force0.0000%-
Merrimack0.0000%-
Northern Michigan0.0000%-
Bowling Green0.0000%-
Colgate0.0000%-
Lake Superior0.0000%-
Minnesota-Duluth0.0000%-
Penn State0.0000%-
Massachusetts0.0000%-
Maine0.0000%-
Vermont0.0000%-
Princeton0.0000%-
Michigan Tech0.0000%-
Michigan State0.0000%-
RIT0.0000%-
Harvard0.0000%-
Clarkson0.0000%-
American Int'l0.0000%-
Northeastern0.0000%-
Bentley0.0000%-
Bemidji State0.0000%-
Alaska-Anchorage0.0000%-
Army0.0000%-
Sacred Heart0.0000%-
Alabama-Huntsville0.0000%-

Quinnipiac - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1100.0000%100.0000%196608

Minnesota - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
2100.0000%100.0000%196608

Miami - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
355.8321%54.6926%107530
429.0589%33.7041%66265
512.6798%9.6654%19003
62.3633%1.8748%3686
70.0659%0.0631%124

Boston College - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
318.9049%18.7500%36864
420.9579%20.4559%40218
522.3052%25.4400%50017
621.0679%20.2998%39911
711.4720%10.1913%20037
84.1015%3.7257%7325
90.8882%0.8560%1683
100.1914%0.2080%409
110.1110%0.0732%144

Mass.-Lowell - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
318.1158%17.4561%34320
412.5790%7.9208%15573
516.7616%16.7689%32969
623.8093%26.5015%52104
718.0895%20.0450%39410
87.7085%8.8994%17497
92.6488%2.1713%4269
100.2782%0.2330%458
110.0093%0.0041%8

North Dakota - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
31.2005%2.1683%4263
45.9718%7.0038%13770
59.5354%10.3231%20296
614.8619%16.5176%32475
724.9793%24.9705%49094
821.6649%17.3843%34179
910.4248%12.7696%25106
108.5458%7.2210%14197
112.8139%1.6408%3226
120.0018%0.0010%2

New Hampshire - 100.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
50.0878%0.2553%502
61.6563%3.7018%7278
78.3765%13.0864%25729
830.4657%37.6638%74050
942.6232%34.3684%67571
1013.9224%9.1054%17902
112.6043%1.6795%3302
120.2624%0.1378%271
130.0014%0.0015%3

Minnesota State - 99.9068% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
50.0072%0.0102%20
60.1584%0.2040%401
71.3811%1.2939%2544
86.0562%6.4423%12666
914.8344%19.0638%37481
1030.1998%32.2062%63320
1128.3383%26.1129%51340
1216.6540%12.0636%23718
132.1546%1.7965%3532
140.1229%0.1180%232
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
170.0898%0.6302%1239
180.0034%0.0585%115

Denver - 99.6395% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
70.0069%0.0086%17
80.4185%0.5956%1171
92.4137%4.4540%8757
1012.0758%17.5069%34420
1128.9249%30.3090%59590
1234.0641%30.2475%59469
1321.0071%14.0757%27674
140.7091%0.3972%781
150.0192%0.0097%19
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
170.3493%2.2186%4362
180.0112%0.1770%348

Yale - 99.4335% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
31.5334%1.3295%2614
412.5068%14.1724%27864
515.0798%17.2963%34006
611.6284%14.2319%27981
716.0106%14.4348%28380
812.9971%9.4966%18671
97.6005%5.5562%10924
105.6200%3.5467%6973
114.6293%2.8854%5673
124.9775%3.9988%7862
134.3836%5.4392%10694
142.1612%3.5324%6945
150.2803%0.4613%907
160.0250%0.0183%36
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
170.4769%2.7623%5431
180.0782%0.7365%1448
190.0106%0.0936%184
200.0008%0.0076%15

Niagara - 99.4041% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
45.5681%4.7831%9404
515.1473%9.3745%18431
616.4276%8.0907%15907
710.3598%6.0104%11817
84.9102%3.8996%7667
94.6478%4.9596%9751
107.2354%6.8090%13387
118.4554%11.3007%22218
1213.1131%19.6589%38651
1312.0918%17.7973%34991
141.4010%1.9709%3875
150.0466%0.0549%108
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
170.5687%4.7607%9360
180.0271%0.5295%1041

St. Cloud State - 98.6504% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
30.0132%0.1027%202
41.9154%4.8035%9444
55.4463%8.4849%16682
66.7687%7.4066%14562
78.2774%7.4916%14729
89.7822%8.2062%16134
98.7663%6.7612%13293
109.1238%6.4006%12584
1111.7612%9.6013%18877
1219.3233%15.7054%30878
1313.8917%13.6022%26743
143.1526%3.5085%6898
150.4283%0.4038%794
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
171.2300%6.1356%12063
180.1196%1.3860%2725

Notre Dame - 86.9433% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
34.4000%5.5008%10815
411.4420%7.1564%14070
52.9498%2.3814%4682
61.2583%1.1714%2303
70.9810%2.4043%4727
81.8950%3.6840%7243
95.1256%8.9630%17622
1012.4460%15.8427%31148
119.3744%11.3764%22367
124.5766%5.9840%11765
1316.8497%8.2540%16228
146.6310%4.4495%8748
156.0088%3.1296%6153
163.0050%0.8260%1624
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
178.6172%9.4518%18583
183.6464%6.8899%13546
190.7485%2.2746%4472
200.0446%0.2604%512

Western Michigan - 84.4904% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1316.2458%10.9975%21622
1452.7416%31.5699%62069
1514.8937%9.6263%18926
160.6094%0.3799%747
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1712.6161%29.6733%58340
182.6675%14.7792%29057
190.2253%2.9694%5838
200.0006%0.0046%9

Union - 56.6909% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
80.0003%0.0025%5
90.0267%0.0768%151
100.2298%0.5519%1085
111.5501%2.6194%5150
124.3714%7.5048%14755
136.0588%10.0576%19774
1412.0302%8.7250%17154
1526.9396%8.6751%17056
165.4841%1.3692%2692
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1721.5906%19.1259%37603
1812.1836%19.6793%38691
195.5652%12.1730%23933
202.6730%5.5644%10940
211.0085%2.5314%4977
220.2483%1.0478%2060
230.0341%0.2396%471
240.0056%0.0534%105
250.0001%0.0031%6

Connecticut - 23.5290% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
150.1186%0.3062%602
1623.4103%24.6938%48550
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
2913.9555%5.0797%9987
307.8661%7.0450%13851
314.8750%5.9102%11620
3225.5488%17.9611%35313
3324.2214%38.9771%76632
340.0042%0.0270%53

Wisconsin - 23.4933% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
100.1316%0.3688%725
111.4279%2.3972%4713
122.6340%4.1087%8078
134.7961%8.3628%16442
147.0209%8.4320%16578
154.5823%2.4607%4838
162.9006%0.5295%1041
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1712.9758%4.9622%9756
1821.2332%11.8235%23246
1921.8158%18.3670%36111
2013.5815%18.8853%37130
215.1751%12.0870%23764
221.4383%5.4031%10623
230.2684%1.5869%3120
240.0184%0.2157%424
250.0003%0.0097%19

Boston University - 19.6352% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
120.0111%0.2965%583
132.0522%5.1030%10033
146.4004%11.4466%22505
158.7731%7.9742%15678
162.3983%1.0396%2044
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
174.8834%2.5472%5008
189.2031%5.8797%11560
1917.4606%10.6410%20921
2025.2227%17.8711%35136
2115.6125%18.2393%35860
226.4209%12.2772%24138
231.3486%5.0364%9902
240.1964%1.4618%2874
250.0167%0.1862%366

Providence - 18.7344% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
120.0107%0.2930%576
130.4090%3.3407%6568
144.4583%10.6364%20912
159.7836%9.1609%18011
164.0728%1.6118%3169
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
171.0163%0.2680%527
184.4067%1.2339%2426
1913.8467%5.3879%10593
2020.5537%12.3220%24226
2118.4258%16.9586%33342
2210.9253%14.1922%27903
236.4045%10.2529%20158
243.2388%6.5964%12969
251.9125%5.4601%10735
260.5303%2.2202%4365
270.0049%0.0651%128

Mercyhurst - 17.4484% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1617.4484%25.0000%49152
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
3521.5199%12.5000%24576
3653.8016%49.3769%97079
377.1576%13.0437%25645
380.0725%0.0793%156

Rensselaer - 14.5781% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.9516%0.6287%1236
156.3251%2.8407%5585
167.3014%1.7578%3456
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1723.5409%12.1862%23959
1827.9046%22.7000%44630
1920.6096%26.6830%52461
209.6502%19.7891%38907
213.0070%9.6980%19067
220.6447%3.1102%6115
230.0628%0.5681%1117
240.0019%0.0381%75

Ohio State - 14.3688% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.3002%1.7893%3518
157.7231%17.5603%34525
166.3456%5.6503%11109
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
200.1102%0.0280%55
210.5938%0.1684%331
222.5239%0.9048%1779
234.6031%2.5543%5022
244.4090%3.7486%7370
252.9147%3.2425%6375
263.5292%3.7918%7455
275.0426%6.8685%13504
2819.9563%10.9355%21500
2927.4191%21.8196%42899
309.1343%13.2696%26089
315.3951%7.6686%15077

Canisius - 13.1246% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1613.1246%25.0000%49152
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
4016.5389%25.0000%49152
4169.0522%48.4665%95289
421.2843%1.5335%3015

Michigan - 11.7761% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
156.2524%18.4438%36262
165.5236%6.5562%12890
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
260.3841%0.1836%361
272.4472%2.1652%4257
285.9149%4.3218%8497
297.7076%9.9213%19506
302.6740%7.9193%15570
3114.9610%6.6671%13108
3248.3102%35.6415%70074
335.8250%8.1802%16083

Brown - 10.3210% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
130.0580%1.1719%2304
141.5389%9.3384%18360
155.3034%11.6130%22832
163.4206%2.8768%5656
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
190.5173%0.2406%473
205.6589%2.5050%4925
2119.8185%10.9126%21455
2219.3483%16.3259%32098
2311.9902%14.5665%28639
2410.5976%10.3582%20365
2510.6941%7.5114%14768
268.0222%7.5409%14826
272.6941%4.3116%8477
280.2984%0.6251%1229
290.0340%0.0804%158
300.0053%0.0219%43

Colorado College - 3.9723% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.3704%3.4495%6782
152.0935%7.0730%13906
161.5084%1.9775%3888
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
210.0361%0.0148%29
220.8130%0.4562%897
231.4921%1.1063%2175
243.8074%2.9984%5895
2510.1678%7.7703%15277
2615.2398%15.4200%30317
2719.6755%18.0756%35538
2827.6021%19.5704%38477
2914.6933%16.6255%32687
302.2393%4.7409%9321
310.2613%0.7217%1419

Robert Morris - 3.8069% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
140.0096%0.0076%15
150.4285%0.2065%406
163.3688%0.6958%1368
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
1711.2731%4.9754%9782
1815.2683%12.4324%24443
1911.5825%16.1774%31806
206.2242%11.4003%22414
214.9463%5.4001%10617
226.2404%3.4983%6878
239.5374%5.5776%10966
2412.2990%8.9986%17692
2511.8670%13.5585%26657
266.3223%13.7329%27000
270.6328%3.3386%6564

Alaska-Fairbanks - 0.0531% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
160.0531%0.0173%34
SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
170.7715%0.3026%595
183.2471%1.6947%3332
196.7509%4.7948%9427
2010.1924%9.2077%18103
2111.5904%13.6912%26918
2213.6733%17.1631%33744
2316.9136%18.9880%37332
2418.0286%17.5161%34438
2514.8881%12.2706%24125
263.7042%3.9612%7788
270.1867%0.3927%772

Dartmouth - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
190.7837%0.1806%355
205.1744%1.7568%3454
2116.5900%8.2021%16126
2231.0843%21.2875%41853
2327.8573%28.8951%56810
2413.7748%24.5682%48303
254.3405%13.5396%26620
260.3950%1.5701%3087

Cornell - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
190.0833%0.0173%34
200.9128%0.3977%782
213.1960%2.0966%4122
226.6393%4.3335%8520
2319.4879%10.6283%20896
2433.5787%23.4273%46060
2526.2691%31.6589%62244
269.1535%23.1857%45585
270.6794%4.2547%8365

St. Lawrence - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
240.0438%0.0193%38
255.5432%1.7604%3461
2622.0355%10.8383%21309
2735.6530%27.2669%53609
2823.9530%29.9133%58812
2910.0829%21.9915%43237
302.2839%7.2184%14192
310.4047%0.9918%1950

Ferris State - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
2511.3857%3.0289%5955
2630.6839%17.5552%34515
2732.9644%33.2464%65365
2819.8818%32.0989%63109
294.9068%13.0686%25694
300.1773%1.0020%1970

Holy Cross - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
270.0196%0.0148%29
282.3934%2.5350%4984
299.9172%7.6518%15044
3043.1019%31.9000%62718
3135.7922%38.0712%74851
328.4946%18.2770%35934
330.2810%1.5503%3048

Nebraska-Omaha - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
2911.2837%3.7618%7396
3032.5179%26.8829%52854
3138.3107%39.9694%78583
3217.6464%28.1204%55287
330.2413%1.2655%2488

Air Force - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
3369.4313%50.0270%98357
3430.5687%49.9730%98251

Merrimack - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
3469.4270%50.0000%98304
3530.5730%50.0000%98304

Northern Michigan - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
3547.9072%37.5000%73728
3646.1934%50.6220%99527
375.8994%11.8780%23353

Bowling Green - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
360.0049%0.0010%2
3760.2282%52.1357%102503
3838.0055%44.5750%87638
391.7614%3.2883%6465

Colgate - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
3726.7148%22.9426%45107
3861.9220%55.3457%108814
3911.3632%21.7117%42687

Lake Superior - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
3986.8754%75.0000%147456
4013.1246%25.0000%49152

Minnesota-Duluth - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
4070.3365%50.0000%98304
4129.6635%50.0000%98304

Penn State - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
411.2843%1.5335%3015
4229.6641%39.9114%78469
4341.9618%37.6114%73947
4413.0709%9.7051%19081
458.4126%6.9997%13762
464.9640%3.7496%7372
470.6422%0.4893%962

Massachusetts - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
4268.9260%58.4437%114905
4330.9282%41.4113%81418
440.1458%0.1450%285

Maine - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
420.0792%0.0712%140
4318.7107%12.9374%25436
4433.0475%31.0486%61044
4538.2344%35.9070%70596
469.3736%18.0735%35534
470.5546%1.9623%3858

Vermont - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
420.0463%0.0402%79
437.0377%3.7837%7439
4441.9286%35.6527%70096
4529.6820%26.9780%53041
4617.0867%27.7425%54544
474.2187%5.8029%11409

Princeton - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
431.1049%3.7521%7377
449.2353%19.5312%38400
4518.3329%24.2935%47763
4653.5882%37.9023%74519
4717.7386%14.5208%28549

Michigan Tech - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
430.2567%0.5040%991
442.5720%3.9174%7702
455.3381%5.8217%11446
4614.9875%12.5320%24639
4776.8458%77.2247%151830

Michigan State - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
4883.2600%72.7600%143052
4916.7400%27.2400%53556

RIT - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
4816.7400%27.2400%53556
4983.2600%72.7600%143052

Harvard - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
5081.8168%71.0876%139764
5118.1832%28.9124%56844

Clarkson - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
5018.1832%28.9124%56844
5181.8168%71.0876%139764

American Int'l - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
52100.0000%100.0000%196608

Northeastern - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
53100.0000%100.0000%196608

Bentley - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
54100.0000%100.0000%196608

Bemidji State - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
55100.0000%100.0000%196608

Alaska-Anchorage - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
56100.0000%100.0000%196608

Army - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
57100.0000%100.0000%196608

Sacred Heart - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
58100.0000%100.0000%196608

Alabama-Huntsville - 0.0000% chance of being in the tournament

SeedWeightedUnweightedPermutations
59100.0000%100.0000%196608